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❗️The world's largest diesel supplier may stop exporting. What's happening in the fuel market and what this threatens for Ukrainians. INSIDER UA editorial analysis
In the U.S., amid record fuel price increases, talk has arisen about a radical measure — limiting or even banning diesel exports. The possibility of such a step was publicly raised by Senate Republican Majority Leader John Thune.
▪️What is happening with prices? The average cost of diesel in the U.S. exceeded $6 per gallon for the first time and now stands at about $1,66 per liter (roughly 74 UAH). Diesel has risen almost 70% over the past year. Rising prices are beginning to pressure transportation, agriculture, and the cost of goods;
▪️The reason for the spike is a global diesel shortage: the U.S. conflict with Iran has disrupted supplies from the Middle East, Russia has limited fuel exports due to attacks on refineries, and global stocks are falling;
▪️Why would a possible U.S. ban be so important? The U.S. is the world's largest diesel exporter. Fuel is supplied, among other places, to Europe;
▪️If Washington actually cuts off exports, the global market would lose two of its largest diesel sources (Russia already no longer supplies). Against an already existing shortage, this could trigger a new jump in wholesale prices in Europe;
▪️What does this mean for Ukraine? Ukraine is heavily dependent on imported diesel. In August alone, the country imported 588 thousand tons, with 67% of supplies already coming through the western border. Therefore, a sharp rise in diesel prices in Europe would quickly be passed on to the Ukrainian market.
Rising prices at Ukrainian gas stations will drive up logistics, delivery, food, and other goods prices. So far, the U.S. has not banned exports. But the very fact that such a measure is being discussed shows how strained the global fuel market has become.
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