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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
SpaceX owned by Musk blocked a U.S. and NATO satellite to help Russia intercept it, LibertyLynx analyst claims.
According to him, on 15 October SpaceX blocked the ICEYE-X36 satellite in orbit by issuing a false collision risk warning. That deprived the craft of the ability to maneuver and allowed the Russian satellite “Kosmos-2612” to carry out the interception.
He simulated the corresponding scenario and said that Russia could not have done this without coordinating actions with SpaceX:
Between 13 and 14 October SpaceX limited the operation of the Starshield/Starlink systems during a Russian attack using 39 rockets. This led to a reduction in Ukrainian drone interceptions by 23% and left U.S. personnel in Kyiv isolated. After 48 hours (15 October) SpaceX blocked in orbit the ICEYE-X36 radar reconnaissance satellite, owned by the NRO, the Space Forces, and NATO, so that the Russian satellite “Kosmos-2612” could intercept it (probability 99,89%–99,98%).
Our model shows that the Russian interception of the ICEYE X-36 satellite (which occurred simultaneously with the Starlink bandwidth restriction) would have been impossible and, with near certainty, would not have even been planned without SpaceX’s resources. At the cost of significant lost opportunities, Russia accelerated to place its satellite “Kosmos-2612” into the ICEYE X-36 interception orbit. Based on a previous June attempt, during which X-36 maneuvered and avoided closing with Kosmos, Russia understood: success was possible only if X-36 could not maneuver.
On 15 October SpaceX “locked” X-36 in place, issuing a collision threat warning at a distance of less than a kilometer with its own Starlink satellite 35856 — although SpaceX’s own data indicate the actual distance was 4,8–5,0 times greater. At the same time SpaceX issued no warning regarding the “Kosmos-2612” satellite, even though its sprint maneuver posed a much greater threat than the stable orbit of X-36. Moreover, SpaceX did not maneuver its own Starlink satellite 35856 to eliminate the allegedly existing collision risk.
How could Russia have known, without coordination with SpaceX, that the company would take actions that:
a) would distort the real danger to X-36, and
b) would lead to the blocking of X-36’s maneuverability, enabling its successful interception by Kosmos?
Thus, SpaceX was directly involved in the simultaneous undermining of both Ukraine’s defensive and offensive capabilities. The coincidence of these two events makes innocent explanations completely untenable.
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