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👀Negotiations in Abu Dhabi: why you shouldn't expect a breakthrough? Collected the key points: ▪️Restraint of the Ukr...

Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.

👀Negotiations in Abu Dhabi: why you shouldn't expect a breakthrough?

Collected the key points:

▪️Restraint of the Ukrainian side: Kyrylo Budanov and David Arakhamia explicitly state that a breakthrough should not be expected. The main task of the meeting is to restore a consultative format and align positions, not to reach final agreements. Separately, they plan to pay great attention to the humanitarian track, including prisoner exchanges.

▪️Disputes over EU participation: The heads of diplomacy of France and the EU insist that Europe must be involved in discussions about security guarantees. At the same time, the Kremlin categorically denies the participation of European representatives, limiting the format to the US–Ukraine–RF triangle only.

▪️Absence of a ceasefire topic: according to The New York Times, the issue of freezing hostilities is currently not on the agenda at all. Diplomats are focusing only on local and humanitarian aspects (including security in the Black Sea).

▪️Military-strategic context: analysts note that the RF is trying to use the winter period to continue pressure on infrastructure, so the parties are unlikely to reach significant political shifts before spring.

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Screenshot of a Telegram post: Budanov Kyrylo Oleksiyovych — 👀Negotiations in Abu Dhabi: why you shouldn't expect a breakth…

👀Переговори в Абу-Дабі: чому не варто чекати прориву?

Зібрали ключове:

▪️Стриманість української сторони: Кирило Буданов та Давид Арахамія прямо зазначають, що очікувати прориву не варто. Головне завдання зустрічі – відновити консультаційний формат та звірити позиції, а не виходити на фінальні домовленості. Окремо велику увагу планують приділити гуманітарному треку, обміну полоненими.

▪️Суперечки щодо участі ЄС: Очільники дипломатії Франції та ЄС наполягають, що Європа має бути залучена до обговорення безпекових гарантій. Водночас у кремлі категорично заперечують участь європейських представників, обмежуючи формат лише трикутником США–Україна–рф.

▪️Відсутність теми припинення вогню: за даними The New York Times, питання замороження бойових дій наразі взагалі не стоїть у порядку денному. Дипломати фокусуються лише на локальних та гуманітарних аспектах (зокрема безпеці в Чорному морі).

▪️Військово-стратегічний контекст: аналітики зазначають, що рф намагається використати зимовий період для продовження тиску на інфраструктуру, тому до суттєвих зрушень у політичній площині сторони навряд чи підійдуть раніше весни.

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