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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
After the change of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces and the appointment of Mykhailo Drapatyi, the question of Mykhailo Fedorov's further role remains unresolved. Part of society is calling for his return to the leadership of the Ministry of Defense, but such a decision could have consequences not only for the president but also for relations between the political and military leadership.
Scott Lucas, professor of international politics at the Clinton Institute, explained on the 24 Channel why Volodymyr Zelensky should not rush to return Fedorov to his previous position. In his view, the president will have to find a delicate balance between public demand, the trust of the military, and his own political legitimacy.
Fedorov's return would create a new risk
The current personnel dispute may not be as acute as last year's crisis over the independence of anti-corruption bodies, but it has dragged on and could, in the long run, weaken public support for the authorities. It was rooted in the conflict between Fedorov's technological approach to the war and the more conservative vision of former Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi.
The problem was that Fedorov demanded Syrskyi be removed. He did not come to Zelensky intending to negotiate and find a compromise, but immediately stated the need for his dismissal,
– Lucas explained.
Syrskyi was later replaced by Mykhailo Drapatyi, who has a high reputation among the military and the public. After that, returning Fedorov to the Ministry of Defense would mean the president is reversing an already made decision, and it could also create a dangerous personnel precedent.
You have to be careful here. Returning Fedorov to the post of defense minister would send an ambiguous signal to the military. After all, the next time he demands someone be dismissed, it will create a new problem,
– the professor emphasized.
Zelensky will have to simultaneously maintain the trust of the new military leadership and not lose his own political legitimacy.
Fedorov needs a position with real powers
The military may view the conflict around the former minister differently: some service members support his approach, while others did not consider Syrskyi's dismissal necessary. Therefore, the immediate task should be stabilizing the army's work under Drapatyi's leadership, not continuing the personnel dispute in the public sphere.
This situation needs to be resolved, but in the coming weeks it should be handled out of the public eye. First, it is necessary to ensure stability under the new commander-in-chief and show results, particularly in the UAV sphere,
– Lucas noted.
After that it will be possible to return to Fedorov's future. A formal appointment that would not allow him to influence defense decisions is unlikely to be a real compromise. A role must be found where his technological experience and managerial abilities will serve the state.
I do not think the problem can be solved by appointing Fedorov deputy prime minister for technological innovations. What powers would he actually have there?,
– the professor explained.
Zelensky and Fedorov himself need to put political calculations aside and find a format of cooperation that preserves stability and allows his expertise to be used right now.
Political ambitions should take a back seat
Fedorov's rising popularity has already generated speculation that he could become Zelensky's competitor in future presidential elections. Similar talk earlier arose around Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who after his dismissal as commander-in-chief was appointed ambassador to the United Kingdom.
If Zelensky makes decisions based on who might become his opponent in the next election, I really hope that is not the case. Political differences need to be set aside now, because everyone needs to act together,
– Lucas emphasized.
The professor believes that Fedorov himself should also be thinking not about a possible election campaign but about how to use his experience for the country's defense right now. At the same time, a position must be found for him that is not merely formal and will allow him to influence the military's technological development.
One hopes that Fedorov, for the sake of the country, is thinking not about the next elections but about what contribution he can make right now. The question is whether there exists another ministerial-level post that would preserve that influence,
– the expert explained.
It is unlikely this personnel problem can be solved quickly. After previous political crises, Ukraine needs stability, so the decision about Fedorov's future should be made without a new public confrontation and only after the new military leadership has fully gotten to work.
Scott Lucas named a condition for Fedorov's return to power: watch the video
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item ""Треба бути обережним": експерт назвав проблему для Зеленського щодо повернення Федорова". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: Channel 24.
