Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
Ukraine is considering the possibility of transporting grain by rail through Moldova to the Romanian port of Constanza to reduce dependence on sea routes. Kyiv has already been discussing with Chisinau a favorable transit tariff, which could be 50% lower than the nominal rate.
Ukraine wants to make grain transit through Moldova cheaper.
Ukraine is considering a rail route through Moldova to the Romanian port of Constanța as a safer alternative to export across the Black Sea, Reuters reports. The move comes amid intensified Russian attacks on Ukrainian ships and port infrastructure in recent months.
According to Reuters, Ukraine has asked Moldova to set a 50% discount on the nominal tariff for transporting Ukrainian grain. Kyiv is currently collecting information from potential exporters about possible cargo volumes.
Meanwhile, Moldova’s railways proposed that Ukraine provide guarantees on the volumes of grain that would be transported through the country. The parties are currently negotiating timeframes and potential transit volumes.
According to the estimate of former Moldova Railways chief Oleg Tofilata, the railway corridor through Moldova could carry up to 4,5 million tons of grain per year.
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Ukraine’s assessments are somewhat different: under full operation, the route could provide about 10% of the country’s export. Moldova has already been used as a transit route for Ukrainian grain in 2022–2023 years.
Russian attacks shorten Ukraine’s export forecast
The need for an alternative route arose amid Russian strikes on port infrastructure in the Odesa region. Ukraine traditionally ships over 90% of its grain export by sea, so port issues directly affect the agro-sector’s ability to sell products abroad.
Ukraine’s Minister of Agricultural Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky 10 August told Reuters that the forecast for grain exports in 2026–2027 marketing year was lowered from the previously expected 43 million tons to 38–40 million tons due to Russian attacks on the ports.
APK-Inform analysts also downgraded their assessment. They now expect exports at 39,4 million tons, which is 8,6% lower than the previous forecast.
Meanwhile, Ukraine and Moldova are working on improving rail connectivity. Moldova’s Minister of Infrastructure and Regional Development Volodymyr Bolya 10 August visited the Odessa region, where he discussed with Ukrainian colleague Mykola Kalashnyk the development of rail links and expanding transit.
For Moldova, the route could also be economically advantageous. Prime Minister Vasyl ToFan said Chisinau should not miss the opportunity to earn millions of euros in transit revenues from carrying Ukrainian grain.
Thus, the rail corridor through Moldova could become an additional tool for Ukraine to support exports in case of further attacks on sea infrastructure. At the same time, the final transit terms, including its cost and guaranteed volumes, are still being coordinated.
Earlier we reported that Russia is likely changing its approach to attacks on Ukrainian export infrastructure and has begun striking alternative land routes. ISW believes the aim of such strikes is to complicate the export of grain and other goods and to put more pressure on the Ukrainian economy.
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