Russia Could Evade Sanctions by Using the “L/DPR” for an Invasion

Russia may evade sanctions by using the 'L/D/N/R' (LDNR) to invade.

Ukraine is now at the center of global attention as speculation grows that Vladimir Putin is preparing to unleash the largest European conflict since World War II.

Russia has massed forces in the north, east, and south of Ukraine, conducting large-scale military exercises along the Ukrainian border and in the Black Sea. Western intelligence estimates say the conditions are ripe to begin a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday said he was confident that his Russian counterpart has already decided to attack Ukraine. He believes Russia could invade Ukraine in the coming days, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

The West answered Putin’s saber-rattling with unprecedented sanctions that, it is reported, could devastate the Russian economy. Russia depends on the West for much of its export income and cannot expand or even manage its core sectors without access to Western technology.

Meanwhile, despite Europe’s own reliance on Russian energy, there are alternatives. In other words, there is no doubt that Russia will be decisively defeated in a real economic war with the West.

The potential impact of Western sanctions is clear, but the real question is whether they will be applied firmly and consistently. Russia understands and is adept at employing forms of hybrid aggression that allow it to avoid the harshest sanctions. Since Russia seized Crimea in the spring of 2014, with “green men” in unmarked uniforms, the Kremlin’s campaign against Ukraine has been a master class in deception and denial, enabling Moscow to wage an incursive war while minimizing economic measures taken by the West.

Do not ignore the hybrid nature of Russian aggression in Ukraine over the last eight years while attempting to predict what may happen next. While the world watches the Ukrainian border and awaits the grim spectacle of a full-scale Russian invasion, it remains quite possible that Putin will instead rely more on the same hybrid tactic that has served him so well in Ukraine. For Western leaders it is crucial to remember that Putin prefers hybrid warfare. U.S. President Joe Biden has already hinted at possible disagreements in sanctions within the Western camp in the event of a “minor incursion.” The Russian leader will undoubtedly try to capitalize on this vulnerability.

The Kremlin-controlled groups of the LNR/LPR in eastern Ukraine remain the most evident launching pad for further hybrid military actions.

Russia’s State Duma has asked President Putin to officially recognize the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republiks. And while any step to recognize these “republics” would not change the military situation on the ground, it could pave the way for a range of troubling events in the future. The Kremlin has commanded armed formations of militants in eastern Ukraine since the start of hostilities in the spring of 2014. However, if Russia decides to officially recognize the “republics,” Moscow could supply weapon systems more openly and on a larger scale.

And although Russian officers have coordinated military activity in the occupied eastern Ukraine for the last eight years, official recognition would sharply increase the presence of regular Russian troops and mercenary formations. The most frightening possibility is that it could enable the deployment of Russian peacekeepers at the invitation of a Russia-controlled authorities. Any peace mission could also include forces of Kremlin allies, such as Belarus.

Recognition by Russia of the “DPR and LPR” in eastern Ukraine would mean the final end of the Minsk agreements and would shatter an already stagnant peace process. At the same time, it is unlikely that the international community would classify this recognition as an act of aggression that would trigger the strictest sanctions.

This makes it potentially attractive for the Kremlin. Moscow was also buoyed by the near-total Western inaction regarding the issuance of 2019 year hundreds of thousands of Russian passports to residents of the occupied east of Ukraine, a process that effectively turned the region into a passport protektorate of the Kremlin. Following official recognition and the bolstering of Kremlin forces in the occupied eastern part of Ukraine, Moscow would likely seek to organize military provocations along the front line of the conflict that smolders.

An “Ukrainian attack” on Russian peacekeepers could provide a convenient pretext to push deeper into Ukraine. This Russian military operation would be masked as an offensive by pro-Russian militants. In this way, the Kremlin hopes to avoid the horrific sanctions that could be imposed in the event of open invasion.

For Ukraine, a hybrid Russian assault would be as devastating as a more classic invasion. Military and civilian lives could be lost, more Ukrainian lands captured and occupied by the Kremlin. Economic losses would also be substantial, both in terms of direct material damage and harm to Ukraine’s overall business climate. No one wants to invest in a conflict zone.

Such an approach would give Moscow the chance to outmaneuver sanctions by causing enough harm to Ukraine to force Kyiv to accept favorable peace conditions. In many ways, this could be an expanded version of the tactic the Kremlin used in 2014 and at the beginning of 2015 before signing the two Minsk agreements.

Hybrid forms of aggression pose a serious threat to Ukraine, which has not yet been recognized in international discussions about sanctions. This underscores the need to definitively resolve Russia’s longstanding denial of involvement in events in eastern Ukraine. It has been allowed to remain in a diplomatic gray zone, despite numerous refutations and complete lack of trust.

The current crisis has left no room for further doubt that Russia intends to redraw the entire European security architecture. Moscow views the reconquest and subjugation of Ukraine as a key step toward this geopolitical goal.

As future peace and stability in Europe are at stake, Western leaders must send Moscow a clear signal that they will no longer tolerate distraction and division through tales of “separatist militias” or “people’s republics.” Instead, any attempt to wage a covert war using Kyiv-controlled Donbas territories must meet the same crippling sanctions now being prepared in response to the threat of direct Russian invasion.

Pavlo Kukh ta was serving as Minister of Economy, Viktoriya Podhorna, Mykyta Poturayev and Yehor Chernev are deputies of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.

The original publication is on the Atlantic Council’s website, with permission for this republication granted to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.