"He's Not Your Vova." Zelensky Is Already Preparing for a Run for a Second Term

"He's Not Your Vova." Zelensky Is Already Preparing for a Run for a Second Term

Volodymyr Zelensky looked worried and displeased. Accompanied by bodyguards, he was walking through the corridors of the YES Brainstorming forum after the traditional photograph of all event participants (ukr).

This was reported in today's article by Roman Kravets of Ukrainska Pravda.

Volodymyr Zelensky looked preoccupied and dissatisfied. Accompanied by bodyguards, he walked through the corridors of the YES Brainstorming forum after the traditional photograph of all participants of the event.

The president was particularly reluctant to talk with the media. After his speech at the forum and nearly an hour-long, fairly tense public conversation with BBC Hard Talk host Stephen Sackur, Zelensky wanted to leave the Mystetskyi Arsenal, where everything had taken place, as quickly as possible.

While the president was walking to the exit, the author of these lines managed to catch up with him and speak briefly.

The Ukrainska Pravda question concerned his intention to run for president a second time in 2024 year.

After a short and somewhat emotional lecture about how a journalist should ask questions and how they should listen to the president, Zelensky replied: "That is decided by the people of Ukraine… I'm not running anywhere, I'd rather fulfill everything I promised in my one term and go on vacation."

Perhaps this answer was dictated by sociological data showing that more than 57% of Ukrainians are against Volodymyr Oleksandrovych running for president a second time.

During the 2019 year election campaign, Volodymyr Oleksandrovych made a promise his predecessors did not dare to voice: "I want to assure you right away — I'm going for one term to change the system for the future." And that could not but appeal to the Ukrainian voter, who was tired of classic politicians who, having just grabbed the coveted seat, do everything to stay in it.

However, a few months after Zelensky won the election, doubts began to arise on Bankova that the country's new leader would be able to refrain from participating in the 2024 year elections.

"When we came in, we realized that it's impossible to achieve everything we promised and planned in one term. Volodya really does not reject the idea of running for a second term and that's logical," one influential member of the president's team explained to Ukrainska Pravda early in 2020 year.

On 21 October it will be two and a half years since Zelensky's victory in the second round of the presidential election.

That will mean that Volodymyr Oleksandrovych will pass his presidential "equator."

Because of this, the possibility of Zelensky running for a second term is being discussed more and more on Bankova. Interestingly, none of the Ukrainska Pravda interlocutors of various levels even tried to insist that he will keep his campaign promise.

"The first one hasn't clearly announced that he has decided to run. At meetings there were jokes like: 'if we don't manage to finish something now — we'll finish it in the next term.' But the team has no doubts that he's going for a second term. I even think he has accepted it internally," shared one influential member of Servant of the People with his own observations.

Ukrainska Pravda investigated how Zelensky is preparing for the presidential race, which problems his team must solve in the next two years, and why the Office of the President is considering moving the parliamentary elections.

The burden of power

That Volodymyr Oleksandrovych does not speak directly about a second term is a fairly logical tactic. After all, his predecessor Petro Poroshenko also began preparing for an election at the "equator" of his presidency. And until January 2019 year he officially said nothing.

First, there are still two and a half years until the elections, and no one knows what may happen during that time.

Second, why disappoint in advance those for whom the promise of one term was truly important?

And third, Zelensky keeps the option of indeed not running open just in case.

However, Volodymyr Oleksandrovych also cannot yet refuse to run for a second term.

And there are several important arguments for that.

The first argument is ratings. Compared with other politicians, support for Zelensky remains high and he currently holds the lead. About 29% of Ukrainians who have decided on their choice are ready to vote for him. His closest competitor, Petro Poroshenko, has no more than 15% support.

The second is his entourage, which will urge him to run. People who could only dream of high politics without the president's help came into the Presidential Office, the Cabinet, and the Verkhovna Rada.

Yesterday's no-names, hosts, photographers, Sanahunt employees — in an instant became honored guests at state events, Monatik concerts, and in VIP boxes at football matches.

Obviously, it will be extremely difficult for the president's team to give up such a status-filled life.

The third argument is personal security. Today Zelensky controls the political, economic, and law enforcement blocks. This allows him and his people to feel completely secure. And not only his closest circle.

Recall the birthday of Mykola Tyshchenko’s wife during the lockdown.

Once he ceases to be president — what guarantee is there that the new authorities won't start "catching up" with the leadership of his Office or even with Volodymyr Oleksandrovych himself?

Fourth. Zelensky has already entered history as the person who managed to send the entire "old" political elite to the second league. Under Volodymyr Oleksandrovych, Poroshenko, Tymoshenko, Boyko and the others have no chance to return to real power.

If he does not dare a second term, they will at least have a hypothetical chance to return. And that means that Zelensky's most important victory could simply be written off.

And we're not even talking about the Servant of the People party. Where will those 250 deputies go without Volodymyr Oleksandrovych? If in 2024 year Zelensky packs his things and leaves Bankova — the Servant of the People party will not have a serious political future. It is no secret that this political force won a staggering victory in the parliamentary elections solely thanks to Zelensky and the namesake TV series.

After all, if you doubt that 'SN' will have problems without Zelensky, ask the deputies from the Holos faction how they live without Svyatoslav Vakarchuk.

Fifth — how would Volodymyr Oleksandrovych even govern the country in his final year in office if he is 'ironclad' not to run in the elections?

"You understand that if Vova doesn't run, then in the last year of the presidency we'll have real problems. In 19 year we sent everyone to hell, and in 23 year everyone will send us to hell.

Heads of regional state administrations will look for 'protection,' district heads will run to Yulia, Petya, Lyova, deputies will sell themselves to anyone.

So we're already saying that Oleksandrovych cannot refuse a second term," one of the key members of the Ze!Team shared his concerns with Ukrainska Pravda early in 2020 year.

Our interlocutor's fears are understandable. Indeed, if Zelensky does fulfill his campaign promise, in the final year of his presidency oligarchs and regional elites will regroup and could become a real threat to Volodymyr Oleksandrovych. Because in a year to a year and a half they will stop taking him into account and his will at the local level will mean nothing to them.

Of course, the same problem will arise at the end of a second term. But in that time Zelensky will be able to strengthen himself much more seriously, and, in the end, have time to prepare for a graceful exit, since a third term is not provided for by the Constitution.

President of the center

Currently the president's team is not opening headquarters or running a full-scale election campaign. There is no point in that right now.

But Bankova pays attention to sociological data. Based on those results, they are developing a communication strategy for the next two years, which should grow into a full-fledged election campaign.

Yes, according to Ukrainska Pravda, the Office is trying to obtain data on political moods not only from current voters but also from underage citizens aged 16 years and up, who will come to vote in two years.

"These kids aged 16 to 20 years — they don't care about others at all, they are clearly for us. In their world other politicians do not exist because others do not communicate with them in an accessible language. With older categories we need to catch up a bit, there are remarks," explains, on condition of anonymity, a member of the Ze!Team involved in Zelensky's presidential and parliamentary campaigns.

For example, one of the earlier criticisms of the president from older voters was about his political inexperience.

To address this, Volodymyr Zelensky is changing his political image.

The president is no longer 'one of the guys' or just a 'face from the screen.' On the contrary — he increasingly tries to emphasize his status as the country's leader. In an interview with Ukrainska Pravda, Mykhailo Podoliak, adviser to the head of the Presidential Office responsible for information policy, said: "the institute of the presidency should be sacred." This is precisely what Bankova is systematically working on.

"No new political technologists have come into the Presidential Office — it's actually some sort of pass-through courtyard. Everyone brings someone, but they haven't properly agreed with anyone.

Only Podoliak took Boris Tysengauzen as an aide, who briefs MPs before broadcasts. Otherwise Zelensky invents a lot himself — as a filmmaker he understands how to work with people's emotions," a source in the president's team told Ukrainska Pravda.

So, according to sources, to highlight his professionalism to the broad public, Zelensky became the inspiration for launching regular 'Ukraine 30' forums. Their implementation was overseen by Presidential Office deputy head Kyrylo Tymoshenko, who once shot videos for all political camps, including Poroshenko and his army friend Ihor Kononenko.

The showcase of the president's new image was demonstrated on the broadcast of the program 'Right to Power' titled 'Generation of the Independent,' where the president debated and answered questions from businessmen, experts, and youth on socio-political issues.

On that show he ostentatiously demonstrated his readiness to debate with people 'who are changing the country,' and emphasized that he is 'in the material.'

Zelensky's answer about three achievements he managed to implement during his years in power was telling.

The president, without unnecessary modesty, announced that they are:

1) Subjectification on the international stage: "I do everything so that we are respected abroad, so that our opinion is taken into account, so that decisions are not made without us;"

2) Infrastructure: "I believe it's a shame when a country doesn't have developed infrastructure;"

3) A strong army: "we have one of the most powerful armies in Europe."

It is quite likely that these three messages, in one form or another, Volodymyr Oleksandrovych will be 'selling' to society in the near future.

Zelensky's image change will also touch other aspects. During the 2019 year election campaign, the president managed to avoid topics that divide the country. Thus he was able to gain support from both those favoring rapprochement with the EU and those advocating friendship with Russia at the same time.

Over the past year Volodymyr Oleksandrovych has begun to speak quite sharply about Russia's actions, organized the Crimea Platform, and even admits the possibility of a full-scale war.

"Rhetorically we've tilted a bit toward Petro and we see that we have started to have problems in the 'South-East.' According to polls the worst is in Donbas and Kharkiv. So the 'first' will have to adjust communication with these regions to keep them with us. They like that roads are being built — so we can talk more about infrastructure, some down-to-earth things for them," one of the president's associates explained off the record.

"In general we see a tendency that Zelensky is becoming a president of the center," adds a source in the Ze!Team.

To level the situation, the Servant of the People faction is also planned to be involved in the president's PR. Deputies will be forced to travel the regions more often, open party offices across the country, and communicate more live with voters.

"The deputies have somehow relaxed — they need to work harder, travel, convince, listen, help in places. We must show on the ground that we are close to the people," says one of the leaders of Servant of the People.