Volodia "Vinnytskyi" and His Team, or the New Coalition Turned Inside Out

Volodia "Vinnytskyi" and His Team, or the New Coalition Turned Inside Out

The old coalition is dead, long live the new one, viva! By submitting his resignation, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk fulfilled the long-held dream of a significant part of the political beau monde, and after Tuesday's vote on his "exit" a new coalition era will begin… "In the name of Volodymyr Hroisman." No one has been hiding the surname of the new head of government lately; everyone was only waiting for the formalities to conclude. Tuesday is planned to finish off the formalities.

So, what do we have? Prime Minister — Volodymyr Hroisman, Speaker — Andriy Parubiy, Prosecutor General — Yuriy Lutsenko.

How will they vote? Most likely, first on the prime minister, and the ministers — as a package.

Who will form the coalition? Background — the BPP and the "People's Front" (PF) will merge in a working ecstasy. The deputies from these factions jokingly call the new format that themselves. "We perfectly understand that many of us can't stand each other, but early elections are even worse," says one BPP deputy.

The problem with forming the new coalition was that, according to the law, it can be formed only by factions that must have at least 226 votes. According to our data, part of the former Radicals, Self Reliance members and Svoboda members are ready to join the ranks of the "winners." For example, the surnames Bublyk and Rudyk are being mentioned. "Fugitives" from BPP might also return. "This is a technical issue and it's being handled by: a) Hroisman and b) the President's young team, that is Dovhyi and Berezenko," says our interlocutor in BPP.

To legalize the new coalition — 226 votes in total in the plenary hall are enough. So it is not necessary for all faction members from BPP and PF to vote. Additional votes may come from deputies who will formally not join the new coalition. Currently in the Rada there are 55 non-affiliated members, Opposition Bloc deputies, 23 deputies from the Revival group and another 19 — from the Will of the People. This is the potential "reserve" for the "birth" of the coalition.

It is not excluded that Lyashko will also vote for Hroisman.

At the same time his motivation may be the following: "I'm in opposition to the government, but not to the Ukrainian people. Therefore I will vote for the coalition, but I will not join it." However, the reasons for "not joining" are different. As sources told AgroPolit.com, Oleh Valeriyovych reached too high in the personnel matter: even for the speaker, and that position was partly needed to glue the coalition along the BPP+PF line.

"We will definitely vote for the resignation of Arseniy Yatsenyuk, but we can consider participating in the coalition only if a law on elections on a proportional basis with open lists is adopted and the current Central Election Commission resigns. That's the baseline. For now BPP and PF are starting to verbally respond to our proposals, but for us words are not the main thing," Samopomich leader Oleh Bereziuk told AgroPolit.com.

According to him, forming a coalition on the formula "BPP+PF" is legalization of the de-facto existing format. As Bereziuk says, they have been working like that for the last 10 years. Won't the rapprochement of the executive and presidential branches create grounds for a new usurpation of power, considering that Hroisman is a protégé of Poroshenko (hello, the distant Vinnytsia mayoral past next to the Roshen factory)? In the Samopomich leader's view, this risk is minimized by a "reliable system of oligarchic-political counterweights" in the new "power-commercial coalition." No one will let anyone move too freely, he believes.

Batkivshchyna also does not plan to join the coalition. Member of Parliament from Batkivshchyna Oleksiy Ryabchin stated that it will not claim positions in the new Cabinet of Ministers. Whether the faction will vote or not — "not decided."

"The faction will meet tomorrow. Tomorrow we will know what and when we will vote for," the deputy said.

Lady Yulia is probably being persuaded to keep that position by the latest sociological polls: in the event of early elections, her political force has every chance to double or even triple its faction in the Rada.

Who will take the agrarian chair?

BPP officially announced that the current head of the agrarian committee — single-mandate UDAR member Taras Kutovyi.

"Appointing Kutovyi as minister of agrarian policy and food is a positive signal to international investors and Ukrainian agricultural enterprises. He is a structural person, with Western thinking, has practical experience working in international corporations. Fits the technocrat standard. He will be closer to UDAR, that is to Klitschko, rather than to Poroshenko," political scientist Mykola Davydiuk tells AgroPolit.com about the most optimal candidate.

Alexander Solontai, an expert at the Institute of Political Education, agrees with him but makes one caveat. "Although he has not been involved in any corruption scandals, he relies on certain personal connections. If he does not yield to them and conducts himself correctly in office, he will not 'burn out.' He is an attempt to appoint a technical minister. And overall Kutovyi stands on his own. However, the President's word will be important for him, because he will enter the Cabinet under BPP's quota from UDAR. And that will always be the case with any minister as long as the practice of political quota allocation continues," the expert explains to AgroPolit.com.

Overall, Solontai believes serious changes await the agricultural sector.

"This government will bet on agriculture. I'm sure of it, because they need to demonstrate economic results. And where to get them besides the agricultural sector? Nowhere. So expect reforms: deregulation, financial-credit reform and expansion of international markets," he summarizes.

According to our sources, two contenders are eyeing Kutovyi's replacement as head of the agrarian committee — Hryhoriy Zabolotnyi (a man of the President) and Oleksandr Bakumenko (close to MHP owner Yuriy Kosiuk). "Zabolotnyi doesn't really want it, so most likely expect Bakumenko," explains an interlocutor familiar with the details of coalition agreements.

We asked one of the contenders for the committee chair (Oleksandr Bakumenko) whether this was true.

"I'm not rushing anywhere, but I won't refuse if I'm asked," he said. According to him, the main thing is to preserve the balance of normal work that Kutovyi built in the agrarian committee. The government 'in the Hroisman way'

The new broom sweeps in a new way. So the question stands.

First, will Hroisman be an independent figure and what should be expected from him? "This will be a Cabinet 'in the name of Poroshenko,' in which the managers will be Hroisman and Lozhkin. Hroisman will not be the full-fledged head of the CMU. This is evidenced by the fact that the President is delegating his head of Administration to help him, so they will run things together," Davydiuk assumes.

Second, a feature of the new government led by the former Vinnytsia mayor is that whether there will be early elections will depend on its actions.

"The new coalition does not remove the issue of holding early parliamentary elections for at least a year. The question is in limbo because there is no broad electoral support: the coalition has a combined 20% public support — PF 1% and 19% — current BPP rating. If by number of deputies they are legitimate, then from the point of view of public support — they are not," political scientist Mykola Davydiuk believes.

On the contrary, Oleksandr Solontai believes that the appointment of the new government fully removes the prospect of early parliamentary elections.

"If the government works poorly, elections will definitely take place in 2018. However, the coalition itself will not function, despite the fact that it will perform the main function — to 'birth' a new government. For voting on bills they will select a new configuration each time. This will help resolve the political crisis and give Poroshenko the opportunity to show his full responsibility, because this time there will be no lightning rods. If his bet works, he will stay; if not — his rating will be reset and there will be parliamentary elections," the expert says. He is convinced that Hroisman will not be an independent figure for at least the first year. "But the first year he is completely in the hands of the President and the Cabinet's work is nothing other than a 'mirror' of the President's own rating," Solontai concludes.

Third, the coalition will work intermittently. "Nominally the coalition will be 226 with a margin of a few votes. But they will not always vote as the coalition. The President will insure himself with oligarchic deputy groups ('Will of the People' and 'Revival') when there is no unanimous decision inside his party, when the Euro-optimists and the Anti-Corruption Platform raise their heads and say they disagree. Not only the coalition will vote, but also non-public partners whom the President has long informally involved in parliamentary cooperation," Davydiuk predicts.

But there is one more very important 'offstage' moment...

The 'Shadow' of Yatsenyuk in the new Cabinet

Although Yatsenyuk is leaving, he remains a strong politician.

"In any case, the factor of Yatsenyuk remains in the coalition. The balance of forces would shift if Interior Minister Arsen Avakov were removed. 99,9% that he will remain in his position. This is a guarantee of security for Yatsenyuk and his team. They understand that criminal proceedings could be started against them, and the biggest demand was to keep Avakov in the CMU," political scientist Davydiuk explains. In his view, part of the financial 'flows' will remain with Yatsenyuk. Thus the "old" prime minister on the international stage will be confirmation that the balance of forces in parliament is preserved.

"So he will have an army with all the battalions and the National Guard," Solontai adds about Arseniy Yatsenyuk's new role.

Why does the West, which did not want the concentration of executive and presidential verticals in one pair of hands, give in so easily?

According to Davydiuk, they are not satisfied with early elections. If they occur, it would mean even greater political fragmentation in Ukraine.

"The influence of the Opposition Bloc will definitely strengthen, Yulia Tymoshenko will increase her representation, and many suspect her of covert cooperation with Russia. Yatsenyuk, loyal to the West, may not get into the Rada, and the presidential political force will take fewer votes. Fundamentally this will not change the electoral map, but it will greatly complicate coalition negotiations. It will be extremely difficult to form a one-vector Cabinet," he summarizes.

Moreover, Solontai says the West is pleased that the speaker's position will most likely go to the People's Front, into the hands of Andriy Parubiy, which is also perceived as a balance of power.

What is the bottom line?

If a coalition is formed from BPP and PF, two centers of decision-making will effectively be formed: one in parliament, the other in the President's office. And the 'shadow' Yatsenyuk, whose interests may contradict these two centers of gravity. So there is a lot of interest ahead. After all, the executor of all the "wants" is one — the government headed by Hroisman. Will our speaker learn ballet? We'll see! For now one thing is clear: Yatsenyuk's resignation is a step toward getting out of political paralysis. Now we can only hope that the deputies will have enough sense to form another government and work for the good of the country. Otherwise they and the President will simply be carried out.

Nataliya Bilousova, Editor-in-Chief of AgroPolit.com