The CIA Director's Visit Is the Least Like a Revival of the Peace Process

The visit of the CIA director to Russia could have been related to the United States' attempts to revive peace talks about Ukraine. Let’s try to analyze whether this is really the case.

Obviously, a personal visit by a person of such a rank is an extraordinary event. Usually, it is one of the last attempts to stop the escalation or to clearly outline the red lines of American interests. It is worth recalling the previous visit of the CIA chief to Moscow in autumn 2021, when Washington already knew about Russia's preparation for a full-scale war and was trying to avert it at the last moment.

Even during wartime, when classic diplomacy through embassies and the Foreign Ministry does not work, intelligence agencies continue to communicate. For example, thanks to this, prisoner exchanges take place. And when at the beginning of this year Russia and Ukraine moved to the public part of the negotiations, the meetings in Abu Dhabi were held precisely at the level of representatives of intelligence agencies.

Information between the U.S. and Russian intelligence services is transmitted regularly. The normal course of events does not require personal involvement of the highest leadership. But if the CIA director himself flies to a country that has unleashed the largest war in postwar Europe, this is something extraordinary.

There can be many variants. Obviously, most of them will be related to the United States' attempts to prevent escalation of the war by Russia. The ways of escalation are well known: from a large-scale mobilization in Russia to a limited invasion of EU countries. Two weeks ago, American media, citing U.S. military intelligence, wrote that Russia could begin military operations on the eastern flank of NATO as early as this autumn. Therefore, the message that the United States will fulfill its obligations as a NATO member is worth personally conveying by the CIA director.

A Russian attack on a NATO country is possible only with 100-percent confidence of the Kremlin that the United States will not intervene. Even 1% probability of direct confrontation with the United States is a risk that Putin will not take without proper preparation. War against the United States threatens disaster personally for him and the loss of power, and that is almost the only criterion Putin regards as serious.

Another scenario could be escalation in the Black Sea. Throughout the summer, Russia and Ukraine have been actively destroying grain export infrastructure. This could lead to a global grain crisis, as the world market could lose about 30% of its global supply. The consequences would extend far beyond Europe, since both countries are major suppliers to North African and Middle Eastern countries. Against the backdrop of unusual heat in Europe and an oil crisis due to the war in the Persian Gulf, strikes on grain exports would inevitably provoke a global food crisis, a wave of conflicts in countries affected by this crisis, and a new wave of migration to the EU and the United States. If diplomacy currently cannot stop the war as a whole, influencing its individual aspects is quite feasible. And since many countries have an interest in resuming grain exports, this issue could also have become a reason for the visit.

Of course, no one really knows the true purpose of this trip. It could have concerned more mundane things as well—the rescue of Americans imprisoned in Russia or some technical issues. But one thing can be stated with certainty: this visit least resembles an attempt to revive the peace process to end the war in Ukraine. Putin is still inclined to fight, and this war will continue until he is deprived of the physical ability to continue it.

Source: Mykola Knyazhytskyi / Facebook