Five killers of the president's rating. What could destroy Zelensky by the end of 2021 year

That the inflated expectations of Volodymyr Zelensky would inevitably turn into disappointment was clear as early as the beginning of 2019 year. But not even two years into the head of state's term, his rating has collapsed even faster than expected. According to a Rating Group poll from 5 January, if presidential elections were held now, only 26,2% of Ukrainians would vote for Zelensky.

In other words, the number of the president’s supporters has shrunk nearly threefold. And soon even that figure may become unattainable for the president. Even Volodymyr Zelensky understands this: he said that 2021 year would be even more difficult for him than 2020. This was reported by uapravda.pro.

We outline the 5 main problems that could finish off the president's rating in the coming year.

Failure in the fight against coronavirus

The publication of the vaccination roadmap for Ukrainians against coronavirus dispelled the last hopes that mass vaccination could still take place in 2021 year. This year only medical workers who treat coronavirus patients and the military in the JFO will be able to expect vaccination. Then elderly people, other medical workers, and officials will be vaccinated. The turn for working-age citizens will come only in 2022 year—if mass vaccination can indeed be organized.

“I have little faith in mass vaccination already in February 2021 year. Most likely, it will be stretched out over time at least until the end of the year, and at most until the end of 2022. Thus, Ukrainians risk becoming hostages to the situation,” said Violetta Yanyshevska, president of the Association of Medical Tourism.

Ukrainians find themselves restricted in their right to be healthy, although at the moment it is not even known how many vaccines in total Ukraine needs. The Cabinet confirms this directly.

Given the stage vaccine procurement is at, it becomes clear that it will not be possible to vaccinate half of Ukraine’s population within the next two years as the government plans. Based on the volume of the Sinovac purchase and the number of vaccines we should receive through the COVAX program, we will be able to vaccinate only 9 million people. At the same time, Zelensky refuses to secure Sputnik V, pushing Ukrainians to travel to Russia, where the vaccine is much more available.

Moreover, the safety of the vaccines Zelensky is offering Ukrainians is a pressing question. For example, he calls Sinovac a “reliable vaccine for life,” although tests in Brazil showed only 60% efficacy. The safety of other vaccines that Ukraine will receive in the near future is also in doubt, since all necessary studies have not yet been completed.

Vaccine cognitive dissonance and ineffective quarantine restrictions that Zelensky's team in the Cabinet implements from time to time despite the lack of reliable data on population morbidity, as well as the charade of equipping clinics with necessary equipment, will inevitably provoke a wave of disappointment in the Ukrainian president in 2021 year.

Continuation of hostilities in Donbas

Zelensky’s plan to settle the Donbas conflict is more dead than alive. Negotiations with Russia over Donbas have reached a dead end. They simply are not happening. Previous agreements to enshrine in Ukrainian law a special local self-government order for certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as to incorporate the “Steinmeier formula” into legislation, are being ignored by Zelensky's team.

In December the Verkhovna Rada extended the law of Ukraine on the special order of local self-government in Donbas until the end of 2021 year, but it still did not establish a special status for certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Kyiv continues to insist that elections be held only after Ukraine regains control over the Russian-Ukrainian border, despite the fact that the Minsk agreements envisage the reverse sequence of steps.

The situation is, in fact, frozen. From Zelensky’s comments on this issue it follows that we should not expect any moves in the future, except perhaps attempts by Kyiv to change the Minsk agreements. Russia, in turn, will not agree to that. And the so-called plan “B” that Zelensky mentioned in December, according to experts, means a forceful scenario. It is obvious that this option will not bring us peace.

Therefore, for Ukraine peace in the east in 2021 year remains unattainable under current policy.

The prisoner exchange announced by Ukraine with the “DPR” and “LPR” also appears to be postponed. Ukraine’s Commissioner for Human Rights, Lyudmyla Denisova, said the transfer could take place on 20–21 January. But nothing has happened yet.

Representatives of the so-called “D/LPR” say that people released by Ukraine immediately end up on international wanted lists and are re-arrested. They also point to numerous failures to fulfill agreements by the Ukrainian side. So far there is nothing to suggest that approaches will change in 2021 year.

Deals with Poroshenko

It’s not surprising that the president’s campaign slogan “Spring will come — we will jail them” has long since become a source of laughter or even irritation. In the extremely sensitive public issue of corruption, there have been no significant advances during Zelensky’s presidency. Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova says that last year nearly 40% more criminal proceedings with indictments were sent to the courts. However, she does not provide statistics on convictions. In two years we have not seen high-profile cases of jailing corrupt officials who committed embezzlement on a particularly large scale.

Moreover, Venediktova unabashedly claims that corruption in 2020 year caused the country eight times more losses than in 2019 year — 278 million hryvnias. At the same time it should be understood that this figure does not reflect reality.

Whether the Prosecutor General will be dismissed is a question that keeps resurfacing on the agenda. But in reality that is not so important, since the effectiveness of the fight against corruption depends not only on her. A full reform of the law enforcement system is needed, which we have yet to see from the president.

Experts argue that there is no personal will from Zelensky to change the situation. They point to systematic “deals” between the president and Petro Poroshenko, who still has not been convicted in any of the criminal cases opened against him.

So there is a high probability that in 2021 we will not see a turning of the trend, and the fight against corruption will again remain suspended in midair. This time Zelensky’s imitation of a “Lukashenko regime” is unlikely to help him.

A team of thieves and crooks

It is no secret that Zelensky’s rating is undermined by ineffective officials. The president said the Cabinet’s composition would change until “professional ministers” were at the helm. Experts also speculated about early elections to the Verkhovna Rada. To maintain Zelensky’s rating it would be in his interest to change the team in both bodies.

But while he can replace the Cabinet, early parliamentary elections are a double-edged sword. On one hand, not holding them risks an even greater drop in ratings, since Servant of the People is inevitably associated with the president. On the other hand, if he held them, he would likely lose the single-party majority.

If early elections were held now, the Servant of the People party, according to a December poll by the Rating sociological group, would receive only 21,1% support. Meanwhile, the Opposition Platform — For Life would get 17,3%, European Solidarity 15,2%, and Batkivshchyna 10,9%. KMIS even says OPFL has already overtaken the “servants” — so far by 2%.

Many of the bills promised by Zelensky have conveniently migrated from 2019 into 2021 year. These include the initiative on an all-Ukrainian referendum, legalization of medical cannabis, and permission for firearms.

Although contradictions within the team are at a boiling point and deputies vote less cohesively, it is much easier for the president to rely on the unanimity of the 200 or so deputies who still obey all party directives and boost his score by delivering on old promises.

However, in any case Zelensky will not be able to distance himself from the servants, and all the “screw-ups” they commit in 2021 year will inevitably be reflected in his rating.

High tariffs and profiteering from the people's impoverishment

Issues of tariffs and providing for citizens are, legally speaking, not directly Zelensky’s responsibility. But as a presidential candidate he took responsibility for improving Ukrainians’ well‑being, and he repeatedly confirmed his social stance during the imposition of quarantine restrictions.

However, citizens did not receive substantial support during quarantine. Apart from loans at 5–7–9% interest, which only 0,005% of entrepreneurs managed to use, only loan deferrals and negligible unemployment aid were implemented. “Great Construction” did not create real employment, and the moratorium on business inspections worked only partially. Economic experts predict that in 2021 year even that assistance will be cut.

Zelensky actively publicizes the rise of the minimum wage to a real living wage. However, most voters understand that the minimum wage does not significantly affect Ukrainians’ wellbeing. It will not pull the average wage up, and it will only increase taxes.

At the same time, the subsistence level embedded in the budget is about half of the real living minimum, which is paradoxical in itself. And all social payments are tied to that indicator. So they will only rise with inflation in 2021 year.

Meanwhile, gas and gas delivery tariffs, as well as electricity, will increase significantly: they are frozen only until March. There is no hope for subsidies. In the state budget for 2021 year their volume was cut. Moreover, the IMF conditions the next tranche on cuts for 2022 year. As we recall, Zelensky opposed the IMF only in the Servant of the People series, but once he became president he always followed the creditors’ lead. It is unlikely he will change course now.

In addition, the Rada will consider a bill allowing housing to be confiscated for utility debt. So soon we can expect a new wave of protests that will significantly cut the president’s rating—unless he quickly scrambles and resorts to yet another set of half-measures on utilities.

And since there will be no “bread,” the bet to preserve the president’s rating is on “spectacles.” In particular, Zelensky spoke of grand plans for celebrating Ukraine’s Independence.

“It is a symbolic year— the 30-anniversary of our independence, it lifts the spirit, there is something to be proud of. I believe we will make a big celebration, we have many ideas. I think many foreign leaders who respect Ukraine will come,” Zelensky said.

This further proves that in a state of complete political impotence Zelensky will turn into an “English queen.” But Ukrainians will not tolerate this. The indignation over disappointed expectations is accumulating and turning into a time bomb that will inevitably “go off” before the end of 2021 year.