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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
A week after CIA Director John Ratcliffe carried out an unscheduled trip to Moscow, questions remain about what prompted such an unusual mission, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reports.
The outlet noted that Ratcliffe cautioned Russian officials against attacks or NATO testing, expressing particular concern for the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. It also says the issue of Russia's support for Iran was discussed.
U.S. President Donald Trump called the visit “semi-routine,” saying Washington wants the war in Ukraine to end, and that “something could come of it.”
The Kremlin stated that Ratcliffe did not meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and characterized the trip as part of ongoing contacts between the intelligence services of the two countries.
The outlet shared that Ratcliffe’s visit was the first publicly known trip by a sitting CIA director to Moscow since William Burns's visit in November 2021, a few months before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
“Thus the question arises: how serious must the intelligence be for the CIA director to personally fly to Moscow to deliver a warning,” the article says.
Former CIA operative Edward Bogan, with 24 years of national security experience, suggested that the information received did not necessarily have to be based on the highest-confidence assessment.
Nevertheless, the decision to direct the CIA director indicates that Washington regarded the threat as sufficiently real and important to warrant a personal warning.
“The fact that the director boarded a plane and went there in person tells me the threat was real and that it was important to say it face-to-face: do not do this—regardless of what we know,” he shared with the outlet.
It is explained that this does not mean American intelligence concluded that Russia decided to attack NATO or that such an attack is inevitable. Yet it indicates that Washington saw enough potential risk to engage in direct dialogue with Moscow.
Former CIA chief of station Sean Wisser, who wrote a book about Russian intelligence tactics, noted that Ratcliffe’s visit was an “encouraging signal” and evidence of Washington’s willingness to oppose what he called “the reckless escalation by Russian intelligence services.”
At the same time, Wisser argued that the warning would have limited value if not accompanied by threats of consequences should Moscow ignore it.
“They won’t stop until we stop them. But for any warning to be effective, it must be followed by consequences for Russia if it ignores it and crosses yet another so-called ‘red line,’” he told the outlet.
Wisser noted that thus far Russia has shown only uncontrolled escalation and the Alliance’s ineffective deterrence.
The outlet summarized that the question is not just what Washington told Moscow, but whether Russia believes that the U.S. and its allies are prepared to act if the warning is ignored.
Bogan urged careful assessment of Russia’s ability to escalate militarily.
“Russia talks as if it has many more options than it actually does,” he said.
According to Bogan, observers sometimes imagine that Russia has a large unused military reserve that could be suddenly unleashed against Europe. Yet he believes that if it had such an option, it would have used it in the war against Ukraine.
The ex-CIA officer explained that this does not mean there are no options for Russia. According to Bogan, the intelligence component of Ratcliffe’s visit could have related to attempts to alter military calculations regarding NATO.
“Something is happening. It is quite possible that this specifically concerned changing strategic calculations and breaching the NATO space in some military way,” he speculated.
At the same time, Bogan expressed the view that Moscow does not necessarily seek direct confrontation with NATO.
“I don’t think they are ready for that,” he said.
Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow: latest news
Earlier, UNIAN reported that the Kremlin leader was ready to meet directly with CIA Director John Ratcliffe during his visit to Moscow, but the meeting was canceled after Putin was briefed on the contents of the American official’s letter. Ratcliffe arrived in Moscow intending to urge the Russian leadership to promptly agree on ending the war. A source told Agency that, from the director’s words, “everything looked as if Zelensky was already standing on Poklonnaya Hill and was viewing the Kremlin through binoculars.” He added that “everyone understood that this was not the case.”
We also reported that Ukrainian diplomat Pavlo Klimkin believes that Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow on 100% was connected with warnings for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Klimkin thinks Putin has always believed that time works in his favor, wearing down Ukraine and the West—and ultimately squeezing them. The diplomat is confident that the matter also involved the war in Ukraine. He explained that what is happening in the Middle East and in Ukraine are two realities that increasingly overlap. Therefore, if they were talking about Iran, they were talking about Ukraine as well.
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Візит Реткліффа до Росії: експрацівники ЦРУ припустили, про що попередили Москву". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: UNIAN.
