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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
A cold shower for everyone waiting for a quick peace: US officials are urging preparations for a war that will last years. This message came from the US Deputy Secretary of Defense for Policy, Elbridge Colby, at the 36 meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in the “Ramstein” format.
Elbridge Colby is the official responsible for US military priorities and force posture. His remarks are more those of a practitioner than of a politician. This is reported by Yuriy Fedorenko.
Everyone must prepare
The practical conclusions Colby draws are that NATO countries and the democratic world must, first, prepare for a difficult winter that Ukraine will have to endure; second, prepare for an intensification of Russia’s hybrid war against European countries; and third, prepare for the fact that Ukraine’s military needs will remain substantial for quite a long time. This is not an exhaustive list of challenges, but a basic one.
The American official dispelled the illusions of those who still hope for a “miraculous de-escalation.” He made it clear that at present there are no concrete timelines for a “settlement.”
“We cannot predict when this tragic war will end,” he said.
Do other Ramstein participants share this view?
At least NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte definitely shares Colby’s position. From his perspective, the collective West should not just maintain support for Ukraine at the current level, but strengthen it.
In particular, he said: “Allied countries need to make greater efforts. We have no choice.” Western media, quoting these words, conclude: the attempt to resume talks with the Kremlin has not produced results. In reality, that is too categorical a formulation.
The point is that any long-term track of so-called “peace negotiations” is in one way or another linked to resolving “parallel” but very important issues, such as prisoner exchanges, navigation in the Black Sea, the need for temporary ceasefires during visits to Kyiv or Moscow by international delegations, and so on. At the same time, the enemy will use (and is using) this mechanism for manipulation and for pushing its own interests — we must be prepared for that as well.
When will real negotiations begin?
A real start to a “peace” process is unlikely in the next few months.
A sober assessment was recently given by the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov: “Although negotiations on a peaceful settlement could resume in September, the conditions for a ceasefire are unlikely to materialize before next spring.”
The conclusion is simple. Whatever “signals” the Kremlin sends, we and our international partners should firmly remember: the aggressor understands only the language of force. When the adversary completely exhausts its reserve of strength and its ability to conduct offensive operations and begins to retreat, then there will be reason for serious talks. That moment is approaching, but not as quickly as we would like.
Every day and every night, the Defense Forces of Ukraine are working to prepare the real prerequisites for a peace process. The main argument at this stage must be pressure on the enemy — on all fronts, in all spheres, including on the international stage. Ahead of winter, the collective West must increase the sanctions pressure on the quasi-empire and boost support for Ukraine. This is a difficult, prolonged path in time, but it is the path to victory.
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Швидкого миру не буде: США закликають готуватися до багаторічної війни". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: Channel 24.
