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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
The Kremlin is using the preliminary results of the State Duma elections, which took place from 18 to 20 September, as evidence of broad support for the war in Ukraine, even though the actual gap for the ruling party proved modest. In the temporarily occupied territories, voting was conducted under the watch of armed people. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) emphasizes that the true aim of this campaign is not parliamentary seats but a political mandate for Putin for further unpopular moves. Analysts believe that the result for United Russia is far from as convincing as the Kremlin wanted to show.
The Central Election Commission of Russia (CEC) reported preliminary results of vote counting in September 20. According to the Institute for the Study of War, as of 13,88, United Russia received 57,54 percent of counted ballots, the Communist Party (KPRF) 13,67 percent, and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) 9,27 percent. CEC Chair Ella Pamfilova said that full preliminary results would be published on 11:00 local time on 21 September, and the final data only on 25 September.
“United Russia’s victory is far from as decisive as the party would like to claim it demonstrates Russian unity around it and Putin, probably due to the need to acknowledge public discontent with the consequences of Russia’s war in Ukraine,” the Institute for the Study of War analysts noted.
For comparison: in the Duma elections of 2021, United Russia received 49,82 percent of votes, the KPRF 18,93 percent, and the LDPR 7,55 percent. Thus, the preliminary results of 2026 mean only a modest increase in support for the ruling party, not a convincing triumph that the Kremlin had hoped for.
The Kremlin wants a mandate, not parliamentary seats.
The main value of these elections for Putin is not the composition of the lower house, but the ability to declare “broad public support” and on this basis adopt decisions that were previously politically risky. This concerns primarily increasing pressure on business to fund the war and strengthening covert mobilization of the army—without proclaiming a classic mobilization that could scare voters and provoke protests.
Similarly, the voting results give Putin grounds to refuse any territorial concessions in negotiations, arguing that the people have expressed him “full trust.” At the same time, Moscow demonstrated a readiness to conceal even large problems inside the country so as not to spoil the turnout picture during the vote.
Notably, on 20 September, the night before the vote, the Moscow region authorities deliberately did not sound air-raid sirens during a massive Ukrainian drone attack, despite fires at an oil refining plant and warehouses. This was written about in more detail by Informator, and even pro-Putin mil blogs voiced anger at such government silence.
Earlier Informator reported that there are many myths about elections in the Russian Federation—from expectations of peace to mass mobilization of a million people, although the most likely scenario is rather prosaic: Putin, after the vote, will refuse concessions in negotiations and will intensify covert rather than open mobilization.
We also wrote that political scientist Oleksii Kopytko called the three-day voting a farce, whose main illegitimacy lies in accounting for results in the occupied territories of Ukraine.
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Путін влаштував вибори не заради Держдуми – в ISW розкрили справжню мету". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: Informator.
