Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
Russia since August has sharply reduced the use of ballistic missiles and, instead, has more frequently attacked Ukraine with unmanned aerial vehicles, which may indicate stockpiling of missiles for massive strikes in winter. Bloomberg writes about this, and the next phase of enemy strikes is being prepared precisely against the energy infrastructure. In the publication's assessment, the greatest danger is posed by ballistic missiles themselves, and their shortage in nighttime attacks in recent weeks has alerted Ukrainian and Western analysts ahead of the toughest war heating season.
Ballistic missiles inflict some of the heaviest damage to Ukrainian infrastructure, including energy facilities, Bloomberg reports. The publication notes that Ukrainians are already preparing for what threatens to become the war's hardest winter, with air raids and regular power outages. According to the agency, the reduction in ballistic missile use since August in favor of cruise drones may indicate that Moscow is simply saving these missiles for strikes on the electric power and heating infrastructure as cold weather arrives, which traditionally begins in late October or early November.
One of the main risks before winter, Bloomberg identifies, is the acute shortage of interceptor missiles for Patriot systems, necessary to counter ballistic targets. The publication notes that some Ukrainians are considering relocating to safer regions or even leaving the country, while others are stockpiling firewood and buying equipment and warm clothing to endure possible long outages of heat, water, and electricity.
According to Bloomberg, prices for firewood have risen by approximately 70-80 percent over the year — this is one of the indirect indicators of how seriously the population perceives the threat of a new winter strike on critical infrastructure. Last winter, prolonged frosts and damage to networks led to multi-week interruptions of heating, water, and sanitation in major cities, including Kyiv.
Why winter may be the hardest since the war began
According to the United Nations, the upcoming heating season for Ukraine may prove the most difficult since the full-scale invasion. The UN warned of the harshest winter for Ukraine, as UN Development Programme head Alexander De Croo cautioned about the risk of a humanitarian catastrophe if Russian attacks sever Ukrainians from electricity and water.
According to an official, Russia systematically strikes not only at energy networks but also at refineries, trading and business centers, and there is no justification for such tactics. He named the worst-case scenario as a situation where residents are left without heating, and water supply and sewer systems completely stop functioning during frosts at -20 degrees.
Earlier Informator reported that the main targets for Russia in winter were disclosed by the Defense Intelligence Agency. The enemy will intensify strikes on energy and will increase the use of new loitering munitions and cruise drones, combining them into complex massive attacks.
We also wrote that, according to Financial Times, Putin does not want an energy truce with Ukraine before winter begins, hoping that cold and power and light outages will pressure Kyiv and force it to make concessions.
In addition, Informator wrote that MP Serhiy Nahorniak warned that Kyiv, Kharkiv and other large cities risk being left without heat and light in winter, as the actual state of energy sector preparation for the season often does not match the reports submitted to leadership.
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