Back
Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin again believes that the coming winter will be a turning point in the war, and that massive strikes on the energy sector will force Ukraine to capitulate. However, long-range attacks alone cannot change the course of fighting without successes by the occupiers on the ground.
This was said in an interview with 24 Channel by member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence Serhiy Rakhmanin. He analyzed the aggressor’s plans for the autumn-winter period and explained why the Kremlin’s calculations are mistaken.
What is the Kremlin counting on this winter?
According to the expert, before each winter Putin gets the feeling that now Ukraine’s resilience—energy, military, economic, and financial—will finally break.
The Russian occupiers plan to intensify attacks, including with ballistic missiles and loitering munitions, striking not only energy infrastructure but also warehouses and logistical chains.
His logic is that this will sooner or later lead to a change in Ukrainian government policy. He expects that the difficult conditions Ukrainians will face because of problems with electricity, heating, water, and food will create a breaking point of patience, when society will pressure the authorities with demands to capitulate,
– Rakhmanin said.
Can pressure on infrastructure break Ukraine’s resistance?
However, the politician emphasized that in world history there are almost no examples where such pressure on civilian infrastructure led to the breaking of a state’s resistance. Even though the scale of strikes on Ukraine this winter may be greater than last year, the enemy does not gain the necessary effect directly on the battlefield.
Rakhmanin also rejected the scenario in which the fighting completely transforms into a so-called “war of the cities” modeled on the Iran–Iraq conflict.
I do not think we are facing an Iran–Iraq war scenario, where the battlefield stops and there are only long-range strikes on the rear of one side and the other. Many events will still take place on the battlefield. Long-range strikes are an additional option to what is happening on the ground, not the other way around,
– the MP emphasized.
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Путін робить ставку на це: з якою метою Кремль посилив удари по цивільних". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: Channel 24.
