Back
Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
About Russian elections (or “elections”), in principle, everything is known. In authoritarian countries, elections are perceived as a people's oath of fidelity to their leader. And the higher the announced result, the more the regime uses it as confirmation of its own legitimacy.
Putin, of course, will use these results as proof that Russians support the war. how accurately this reflects reality is another question. But in a system where the decision to continue the war effectively depends on one person, such results only reassure him that he is doing everything right. “The great leader is leading Russia to victory, and the entire people support him” — that is the image Putin apparently wants to leave behind in the history textbook.
And the finale of his chapter in this textbook should be on a grand scale. Thus, capturing Kramatorsk after five years of war is clearly not enough for this. But the destruction of Ukraine fully corresponds to such a scale.
Therefore the main question: how far is Putin willing to go in the war and what could actually force him to stop? The key question after the “elections”: what next?
Since the start of the full-scale invasion, whenever Putin faced a choice between de-escalation and escalation, he chose the latter. The absence of major frontline successes is often seen as a problem for Putin. But his goal is much broader than the capture of separate territories. Combat actions are only part of the pressure on Ukraine.
The Kremlin’s calculation is that Ukraine will eventually tire of resistance and agree to Russian terms, to become a Russian federal territory. The problem for Putin is that escalation now works in both directions. Ukraine increasingly strikes Russian rear areas. This creates economic problems and makes the war significantly more noticeable for Russians themselves. At the same time, military support for Ukraine from the United States does not stop and adapts to new conditions.
Recently a package of military aid was agreed at $2,68 billion. The “Ramstein” format continues to operate, joint defense projects, notably FrankenSAM, are developing, and Ukrainian and American manufacturers are cooperating. The longer the war lasts, the higher its price for Russia.
Although the “elections” gave Putin the opportunity to talk about “public support” for continuing the war, its further course depends not only on the Kremlin. A lot depends on Ukraine — our soldiers, people on the home front — and on the support of allies.
What matters here has not changed: the war will end when Russia no longer has the ability to continue it. And a key role in this is played by the Ukrainian army.
Source: Mykola Knyazhytzky / Facebook
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Краматорська Путіну явно замало. Його мета значно ширша". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: Gordon.
