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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
El Niño 2026 this year is gaining strength rapidly and has already reached levels close to a historical record. According to Carbon Brief, 19 September the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño region 3.4 was 3,07°C, while the previous daily record — 3,08°C — was recorded in 2015.
The powerful El Niño phenomenon in the tropical Pacific Ocean is approaching record values. According to Carbon Brief’s analysis, the event is developing extremely quickly and could continue to intensify in the coming months.
Ocean temperature has nearly set a record
19 September the surface water temperature in the Niño region 3.4 was about 3,07°C above the average. This is nearly equal to the previous daily record — 3,08°C, which was recorded in 18 November 2015 during one of the strongest El Niños on record.
At the same time, the current event has reached such a level unusually early. El Niño usually reaches its maximum strength closer to November–December.
Carbon Brief notes that models project further increases in the temperature anomaly. The average projection of 14 models predicts a peak around 4,1°C at the end of 2026, although these are model estimates, not a guaranteed scenario.
El Niño could last into 2027
The World Meteorological Organization said that El Niño has already formed and will continue to strengthen. The organization forecasts that the probability of the event persisting through February 2027 is nearly certain.
WMO also expects the peak of the current El Niño to occur at the end of 2026. The organization warns of possible major changes in temperature and precipitation in various parts of the world, including increased risks of extreme heat, droughts, and floods.
Consequences are already being felt worldwide
El Niño alters global weather circulations, so its impacts vary by region. Strong Pacific warming can change precipitation patterns and temperatures in Southeast Asia, the Americas, and other parts of the world.
According to the data cited, heat and drought in Indonesia are creating conditions favorable for wildfires and worsening air quality. In India, monsoon changes could affect rainfall amounts, while countries in Central America and the Caribbean basin face risks of drought and crop losses.
Water resources are a separate problem. Low water levels in the Panama Canal may hinder ship passage and affect international trade routes.
What comes next
WMO forecasts that in September–November 2026 El Niño will continue to strengthen, and its weather impacts may persist into 2027. At the same time, specific consequences will differ by region, and the combination of El Niño with other climate factors may amplify or alter the phenomenon’s typical effects.
Earlier StopCor wrote that the winter of 2026–2027 in Europe, according to a forecast by Climate Impact Company, could be warmer than the climate norm. December is expected to be the most anomalous month, with possible temperature records in some regions, while January is the main candidate for a winter cold snap. Overall, experts predict a mild and wet winter, though frosts and snowfalls cannot be completely ruled out.
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