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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko doubted that the Russians would be able to infiltrate Zaporizhzhia by infantry groups this winter, despite a claim about such a scenario by the commander of the 1-st Separate Assault Regiment Dmitro Perun Filatov, and this claim immediately caused concern among residents of the city and region. Kovalenko analyzed the situation on all fronts around Zaporizhzhia and arrived at the opposite conclusion. According to him, the greatest real threat to the city remains not ground infiltration, but daily shelling.
The military expert published his analysis in his own Telegram channel. He noted that the statement about possible infiltration referred to probability, not a proven fact, although it sounded much more categorical than it should have.
"I have serious doubts that the enemy this winter will have the opportunity to infiltrate Zaporizhzhia. More likely the opposite," wrote military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko.
Kovalenko broke down the situation by direction. The nearest place of active fighting to the regional center is Stepnohirsk, which the enemy has long been attempting to capture, but instead loses control over it: most of the city and all of Primorske are already liberated from Russian forces. The occupiers retain a presence only in the 3-microdistrict and the southern part of neighboring Plavni, and their main forces are concentrated in the Kamyanske area, where they are trying to hold the highway from Stepoe to Shcherbakiv. According to the expert’s assessment, even a theoretical attempt at infiltration from this direction would only be possible if the Russians completely capture the Stepnohirsk bridgehead and reach the northern bank of the Konka, and this clearly does not look likely for the end of 2026 year.
On the Orihiv direction, the occupiers are indeed trying to seep in with small groups circumventing Malaya Tokmachka and Novodanilyvka, using mostly lone kamikazes moving through ravines on the southern outskirts of the city. However there is no direct consolidation or control over territory by the Russians there — those who manage to infiltrate are promptly eliminated. From Orihiv to Zaporizhzhia along the N-08 - 50 kilometers road. The Holayipilsk direction the expert does not consider a threat at all due to its distance from the regional center and the tactical blind spot the enemy finds itself in there.
Explained why he considers the panic premature.
According to Kovalenko’s observations, trends in the zone of responsibility 58-group of the Army indicate the enemy losing initiative on several sectors and being unable to hold their positions. He emphasized that the correct position should always be readiness for the worst-case scenarios, but at the same time urged to know the measure — especially in a society that has been under excessive moral and psychological strain for the fifth year.
The most real threat to Zaporizhzhia, according to the expert, remains the daily, round-the-clock terror by all available means of Russian strikes. At the same time, he does not see and does not expect the forces and means that would allow the enemy to achieve success sufficient for the first infiltrations into the regional center by the end of the year in the near future.
Earlier Informator reported that, according to former US president’s envoy Keith Kellogg, Putin will not agree to end the war until he gains control over Odessa, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and the Donbas. The former diplomat emphasized that the dictator still has an appetite for new territorial captures, despite losses of the Russian army, which he estimated at 1,2-1,5 million killed and wounded.
We also wrote that strikes on enemy logistics reduce the offensive potential of the Russians in the south. Orrest Drimalovsky, head of the communications section of the 154-st Separate Mechanized Brigade, said that Ukrainian drones are striking columns with fuel and armored vehicles. Because of this, the occupiers in the Holayipilsk direction face a resource shortage and are losing the ability to conduct intense assaults.
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Чи можливе проникнення росіян в Запоріжжя цієї зими - експерт про те, що відбувається на підступах до міста". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: Informator.
