Russia Prepares New Provocations in Southern Europe: What the Kremlin Is Planning and How NATO Might Respond

Spanish outlet El Mundo reported that U.S. intelligence allegedly warned European governments about a possible Russian operation to launch drones from commercial ships in the Mediterranean. Potential targets named included Spain, France, and Italy.

Russia plans to use hybrid attacks and provocations to pressure European countries and increase fear of potential entanglement in the war. Scenarios include drone attacks on critical infrastructure, as well as sabotage, cyberattacks, and provocations in airspace.

Why Moscow might resort to such actions, how it can hide its involvement, and why it is important for the Kremlin to at least show its population some "successes" — read in the material on Channel 24.

Russia could use fear of war

U.S. intelligence reportedly warned European governments about a possible Russian operation involving drone strikes on Mediterranean countries. According to El Mundo, Russia could use "Gerbera" unmanned aerial vehicles launched from commercial ships in international waters, concealing them inside cargo containers.

Potential threats to Europe / photo El Mundo

Among the countries that have already received such a warning are Spain, France, and Italy. The drones can travel up to 600 kilometers and could potentially be directed at ports, airports, and other critical infrastructure, causing fires, equipment damage, and service disruptions. Later, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto denied this information, but questions remain — the main one being whether Southern Europe is ready for such challenges. We hope the new ministerial adviser — Mykhailo Fedorov — will help with this.

The reports of a possible operation were received by European countries after CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow in 25 August. A Lithuanian source called the likely plan the Russian "Web" (a legendary Ukrainian operation that disabled a significant portion of Russian strategic aviation), and British analyst Keir Giles suggested that any vulnerable stretch of European defense could be targeted.

During a large-scale operation carried out by the SBU, a 41 strategic aircraft on Russian territory was struck. Drones were secretly transported into Russia in advance and launched remotely from disguised covered mobile trucks. This successful attack inflicted losses on the Kremlin totaling more than 2 billion dollars.

Such scenarios can have not only military but also psychological effects, because they can amplify fear of possible entanglement of European countries in the war. Political scientist and philosopher Valeriy Dymov emphasizes this aspect.

In those countries named in these forecasts or possible scenarios, I believe they are realistic — it's about putting pressure on states that are far from the Russian-Ukrainian war, where it is far from the agenda, he told Channel 24.

He believes that fear of possible entanglement in the war can influence citizens' political choices.

If you go into elections with the idea that your country will be drawn into a war and then there will be a threat to the safety of your citizens, we must understand how this can influence things,

Dymov said.

Military expert and founder of "Reactive Mail" Pavlo Narozhny considers a large-scale Russian sabotage operation in Europe a realistic scenario. For this, Moscow could recruit people who have long lived in European countries, have legal status, and do not arouse suspicion from law enforcement.

Components needed for such operations can be relatively easily purchased through Chinese marketplaces. In particular, this applies to parts for assembling drones.

So I am more than certain that the Russians will be able to organize this if they really need to. If they reach such a scenario, they can buy a large number of drone spare parts, Narozhny said.

What hybrid attacks Russia might use

Valeriy Dymov stressed that a likely Russian campaign would not necessarily have a single direction. Moscow could simultaneously use cyber operations, drones, maritime provocations, and other means of pressure.

Hybrid cyberattacks are one unit, hybrid attacks in the Baltic Sea are another unit. Some work with drones, others with provocations like cutting cables. Drones into Moldova, Romania,

he said.

NATO also publicly warns of increased Russian hybrid actions against Alliance countries. These include sabotage of critical infrastructure, cyberattacks, border provocations, airspace violations, and disinformation.

Attention! A fire was recorded in Poland at a Starlink satellite communications facility that cooperates with Ukraine. Relevant agencies are considering the possibility of arson as one of the main scenarios of the incident. No less indicative in this context was the incident with the Russian Mi-8, which for as many as 42 seconds violated Polish airspace and, according to experts, could have been a test of NATO's readiness for such provocations (more on this below).

The political scientist believes Russia may try to conceal its involvement in such operations. This allows space for denial while still influencing public sentiment.

Russia is unlikely to admit that it is behind such operations. Terrorist attacks and terrorism have always been considered quite an effective practice, a policy for those who carried them out as a way of shaping the agenda,

Dymov said.

Narozhny added that Europe has already recorded cases of unknown drones flying near military sites and NATO bases. One problem at the time was the lack of clear understanding of who exactly should respond to such violations — the military or the police.

Some legislative gaps may already have been resolved, but a large-scale operation would still pose a serious challenge.

Why Russia might launch new provocations

The military expert believes that active talk about possible Russian attacks on Europe may be connected to the situation at the front. In his opinion, the Kremlin needs to show its population certain "successes" if Russian troops are not making significant advances in Ukraine.

At the same time, strikes on Ukrainian territory have not produced the result Russia expected. Therefore, according to Narozhny, Moscow could theoretically try to shift the confrontation to Western countries' territory.

If the war in Ukraine is entering such a protracted stalemate, there are no advances, Ukrainian drones strike their (Russian, — 24 Channel) refineries, and strikes on Ukrainian territory do not lead to the desired result — the capitulation of Ukraine — then they may open another front,

the military expert explained.

The question is not so much Russia's technical capability to carry out such an operation as when exactly the Kremlin might dare to take that step.

Mi-8 violated Polish airspace

Against this backdrop, in 23 September 2026, a Russian military helicopter Mi-8 from the Kaliningrad region briefly entered Polish airspace.

A Russian military helicopter Mi-8 violated Polish airspace, flying 300 meters into the country near the town of Braniewo. In response to the 42-second provocation, Warsaw scrambled fighters and put air defenses on full alert, but did not take further action. Polish military believe the Kremlin used this to test the Alliance’s vigilance.

Valeriy Dymov believes such incidents are part of a wider practice of provocations. He emphasized that NATO countries' reactions matter and will affect whether such actions are repeated.

There is demand for this kind of provocation, which means there will also be supply to carry it out. So we must understand that this is not only about Putin or the regime in Moscow abstractly, but about a system that produces such actions (Russian society, — 24 Channel),

the political scientist said.

Narozhny believes such incidents can be a way to test NATO countries' reactions.

They (the Russians, — 24 Channel) saw that there was no particular reaction. There was no shootdown, no wave of new sanctions, Pavlo Narozhny said.

What could deter Russia from new provocations

Dymov says an important factor is not only NATO's military capability but also the political willingness of Alliance countries to respond to such incidents.

He cited the example of 2015, when Turkey shot down a Russian Su-24 after a violation of its airspace of only 17 seconds (compared to the current 42-second ones). The Turkish missile struck the violator already over Syrian territory.

According to the expert, it should be understood that a clear reaction to provocations can influence Russia's further behavior.

I would like to see such responses to a Russian provocation, because if they (European military, — 24 Channel) are in those conditions asking, consulting, when the response system itself is problematic, they will only motivate the aggressor to increase pressure, the political scientist stressed.

At the same time, he acknowledges that European countries' decisions largely depend on their domestic politics and the willingness of societies to respond to threats.

Pavlo Narozhny suggests that after such incidents NATO countries may revise response mechanisms. In particular, they should more clearly define who will be responsible for control of the skies and actions in case of new provocations.

I think they will change their approaches, define who should patrol their airspace. And next time, if there is such a provocation, the response will be very, very fast,

the military expert summarized.

If Russia carries out a large-scale attack against European countries, it could have serious economic consequences for Moscow. Narozhny suggests that after such a scenario Europe could resort to much harsher sanctions against Russia.

Currently some European states continue to buy Russian energy carriers and oppose a full halt to such supplies. However, a large-scale Russian attack could change attitudes on this issue.

I am more than sure that for Russia this would end in economic isolation from Europe. It would end with such draconian sanctions that we have not yet seen, meaning the exclusion of absolutely all banks,

Narozhny said.

For now, Russia is probably not yet ready for such a step, but after some time the situation could change.