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An extremely powerful El Niño climate phenomenon could cause about 451 thousand additional heat-related deaths by February 2027 year. The greatest losses are expected in Africa and Southeast Asia, where rising temperatures pose a particularly serious threat to the population.
This is written by Climate Impact Lab.
According to climate scientists, from June 2026 year to February 2027 year, the additional warming associated with a super El Niño could lead to about 451 thousand deaths.
We are talking about excess mortality from heat, which researchers link to this climate phenomenon. These losses could add to the mortality caused by higher global temperatures due to climate change.
The largest number of additional deaths is projected in Nigeria. Scientists estimate that the intensified heat could kill 31 320 people.
Second place in expected losses is Indonesia, where 19 251 additional deaths are forecast. In Sudan this figure is 17 430, in India — 15 670, and in Brazil — 13 271.
Rounding out the top ten countries with the highest projected death tolls were the Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger, Chad, the Philippines, and Vietnam.
The United States ranks among the twenty countries with the largest expected number of additional deaths. Researchers project that heat linked to El Niño could cause about 3500 additional fatalities in the U.S.
Professor Michael Greenstone of the University of Chicago emphasized that the overall figure of 451 thousand represents the lives of ordinary people and their families. He noted that the scale of projected losses should not distract from the human consequences of the climate phenomenon.
For calculations, scientists analyzed the link between air temperature and heat-related mortality in 24 378 regions around the world.
The obtained models were combined with forecasts of temperature increases due to El Niño. They took as a basis the average number of heat-related deaths for the period from 1996 to 2025 year.
This approach allowed assessment of how many additional deaths the current climate phenomenon could cause compared with usual temperature conditions.
At the same time, the consequences of super El Niño are not limited to temperature increases. Climate scientists also expect higher mortality from droughts, wildfires, and floods.
Researchers urge governments to use the forecast to prepare health systems for the hottest months.
Among the recommended measures are more precise temperature forecasting, opening cooling centers, and increasing the number of medical workers in high-risk regions.
Special attention is needed for people who work outdoors. Researchers recommend strengthening protection from the harmful effects of high temperatures for them.
Professor Friderike Otto of Imperial College London noted that El Niño is a periodic natural phenomenon, but it is developing against a backdrop of a warmer climate.
Because burning fossil fuels continues to raise global temperatures, it becomes harder for populations to adapt to the additional warming associated with El Niño.
The current climate phenomenon has already exceeded the highest temperatures previously recorded during El Niño, and its maximum intensity is still to come.
Co-author of the study Tamara Carlton from the University of California, Berkeley, believes that current temperature conditions show what such climate phenomena could look like in the future.
According to her assessment, due to global warming, temperatures now observed during super El Niño may become ordinary for such events in about two decades.
Carlton also emphasized that stronger emergency response and targeted protective measures can save many lives later this year.
Beyond the direct health threat, El Niño could cause widespread problems with feeding the population.
The World Food Programme warned earlier that this climate phenomenon could leave about 50 million people at the edge of acute hunger. It also forecasts higher food prices.
Similar climate anomalies have previously led to large-scale humanitarian disasters. In 1877–1878 years, a severe drought linked to El Niño claimed over 50 million lives in India, China, and Brazil.
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