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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
Diesel and gasoline from the beginning of September added 7-9 UAH per liter to the price. Market experts say it could have been higher if not for deals between the government and dealers. Demand for diesel in Europe remains strong, and oil stays at peak levels.
There is a new wobble on the world market due to the breakdown of talks between the United States and Iran. While this is a major reason for the rise in fuel prices at Ukrainian gas stations, it is not the only one. Currency fluctuations and market speculations must also be taken into account.
But already this winter Ukraine can expect a new round of price increases, and it will be planned: import fuel taxes will rise again.
In September, gasoline and diesel added up to 9 UAH per liter.
The calm on the fuel market did not last long: after a lull in early September, prices surged again. The only stable thing is the price of automotive gas, which hardly changes since late July. On average LPG sells for 43-44 UAH per liter. This type of fuel is gradually losing its economic attractiveness.
Meanwhile the price of diesel is rising sharply again. Currently, on average across the country, diesel sells for more than 98 UAH per liter. In large premium networks, diesel has crossed the psychological mark of one hundred hryvnias, and this is not the limit yet.
Overall, since the beginning of September diesel has added 7 UAH per liter to its cost.
Diesel prices also depend on the region. For example, in Zhytomyr region and Khmelnytskyi region it is the cheapest in Ukraine – about 97,8 UAH. In Cherkasy region the price already reaches one hundred hryvnias. The most expensive diesel is sold on the frontline Donetsk region – at nearly 105 UAH per liter.
“The reason is expensive crude oil for processing and temporary tension in Europe. We now have a high price at the border of Ukraine: in the range of 91-93 UAH per liter. Plus delivery and retail costs, and we end up with six and more hryvnias at the gas stations. And this is while the border price has fallen slightly in recent days,” says Alexander Sirenko, analyst at the consulting company NaftoRynok.
A market expert explains: ordinary diesel did not break through 100 UAH per liter at the pump only thanks to government–dealers agreements. Some networks agreed to operate without profit, some held onto cheaper old stocks.
“Large European traders and our importers believe this price rise is temporary. It has stretched for three weeks. Oil is expensive and quotes in Europe are up. The price should go down, because there are no objective reasons for such high levels,” clarifies Alexander Sirenko.
Gasoline in September rose even faster. On average across Ukraine, it is now sold for 89 UAH per liter, a new price record in recent months.
From the beginning of September the price of gasoline rose by 9 UAH.
The cheapest for this fuel type is sold in Donetsk region – on average 83 UAH per liter. The most expensive is in Kherson and Mykolaiv regions, where the price has already surpassed 90 UAH.
Blow to gas stations in Kyiv
At the same time, a new campaign of Russian strikes on gas stations does not affect fuel prices. The Kremlin ordered attacks on gas stations in several rear regions, including Kyiv. This certainly causes losses for networks, but does not directly affect the price of gasoline, diesel, or automotive gas.
“In addition to the rise in oil, there is another objective reason for changing prices – the hryvnia’s depreciation against the euro. Because this currency is used to buy petroleum products, at least 80-85% of what is sold at gas stations. But there is also a subjective reason. Networks base themselves not on the real cost of a batch of petroleum products, adding all ancillary costs. They base their expectations on this cost in the future,” says energy sector expert Hennadiy Riabtsev.
The rapid rise in diesel is a problem for all of Europe. For example, diesel prices on gas stations in the United Kingdom hit a historic high. Since the start of the war, U.S. oil from Iran has increased the price of a typical family car’s fuel by about a third. Meanwhile, carriers on Italian Sicily announced a five-day strike because of a sharp diesel price rise. The price per liter reached 2.4 euro.
The price of benchmark crude BRENT has been at maximal levels for the third week in a row – a barrel costs more than 103 dollars. Since the beginning of September it has added almost 11 dollars to its cost.
The price remains high due to political instability in the Gulf countries. The main reason is that talks between the United States and Iran have again run into a dead end.
New York Stock Exchange, USA, 13 July 2026 year.
But there is positive news in the region as well: Saudi Arabia managed to resume pumping oil through a pipeline. This route was paused due to drone strikes. Currently, the Saudis are testing the system: increasing pressure and increasing oil volumes.
“On the bright side: we are awaiting positive news on the Iran–US line. On the negative side: most likely this year hurricanes could be record-breaking, disrupting extraction and shipments from America. And there are no reserves left, and any trouble will very sharply affect prices,” says Dmitry Lyoshkin, founder of the network of gas stations.
The country faces a planned stage of fuel price hikes.
Already at the beginning of next year fuel prices will rise again, but this is a predictable process. The point is that from 1 January there will be another phase of tax increases. The tax on diesel will add 38 euro per 1000 liters, gasoline a little less – almost 30 euro per 1000 liters.
And this means that in January both fuel types will become more expensive by about 2-3 UAH per liter, taking into account additional charges. This figure may vary slightly due to currency fluctuations.
However planned price increases for fuel are very unlikely to happen immediately from 1 January. Usually, before a jump, dealers stock up on diesel and gasoline at former wholesale prices.
“By the end of December we will bring more resource, clear customs, and by mid-January we will not be delivering it. There will be fuel in tanker trucks,” explains Alexander Sirenko.
The next stage of taxation on fuels is laid out in changes to the legislation that the Verkhovna Rada approved two years ago. The document describes a phased change in tax duties. Two more waves of planned increases remain: from 1 January 2027-th and at the beginning of 2028-th.
“If the operation of excises is deferred, our budget deficit will grow. And this downside must also be understood. But this is more a question for the Ministry of Finance and the tax committee,” says Andriy Herus, head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Energy.
Andriy Herus
The Parliament is not discussing canceling the new stage of excise tax increases on fuels. It is impossible to do this, because introducing a higher tax level is a condition of cooperation with the European Union. And this is acknowledged by lawmakers both from the ruling faction and from the opposition.
“Several years ago we had to reach a European-level excise rate in accordance with a special directive. And it cannot be said that we can fulfill these obligations only after joining the EU. It seems it was even tied to visa-free regime,” says Nina Yuzhianina, member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Taxation and Customs Policy.
The positive fact is that Ukraine will not face a fuel deficit. There are no grounds for that, all LB.ua market experts say. The state is indeed dependent on fuel imports. However, a repetition of the spring 2022 year is practically impossible. The market has learned to adapt to wartime risks and operate with volatility.
The main problem of the industry is not a deficit but constant price swings, which are often very hard to predict. They are provoked not so much by global financial cataclysms as by careless political steps.
Hungarian provocations and Polish cooperation
The state aims to form a strategic stock of petroleum products. In conditions of global instability this idea is quite logical. However, due to the war it is very hard to fulfill – oil depots become targets for Russians. Therefore Ukraine agreed to store petroleum products on the territory of Hungary.
“Naftogaz” was to build capacities near the border together with the Hungarian company MOL. This company after the start of the full-scale invasion did not stop cooperating with Russia. However the agreement to store Ukrainian petroleum products in Hungary was effectively wrecked by Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Karácsony. This is an obvious political influence, as it is unclear on what authority the head of the Hungarian government acted.”
Alexander Sirenko
“For me, the Ukrainian side’s intention is clear. It is better for us to have some storage near the border to work safely. And for MOL it is a chance to make money, they won’t do it for free. It’s a profitable venture for both countries,” says NaftoRynok analyst Alexander Sirenko.
Ukraine’s legislation allows storing oil products in neighboring countries’ territory (up to half of total volume). Obviously, in the case of Hungary this is rather unreliable, because Peter Madar’s attacks on Ukraine increasingly resemble the behavior of his predecessor Viktor Orban.
“So, what should we do? Build our own, invest in Ukraine’s infrastructure. But we should build underground storage facilities; with such a neighbor they will always be needed. Steps in this direction are already under way. A government decree on favorable lending was recently adopted. Up to 1 billion UAH in one go, the government bears 5,5% annual, there are clear limits on the terms of commissioning,” writes Oleksandr Kuin, director of the consulting group A-95.
At the same time, Naftogaz expands cooperation with Polish company ORLEN. This sharply contrasts with the Hungarian authorities’ behavior; the Poles call the cooperation mutually beneficial and are ready to strengthen it.
ORLEN will supply petroleum products to Ukraine worth half a billion dollars. Market participants say the terms offered by the Poles are quite favorable. However, it is unknown whether this includes storing fuel reserves on Polish territory.
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