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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
Russia has launched a new campaign of massive strikes against Ukraine’s energy sector. 30 In September drones and ballistic missiles attacked generation facilities and the power transmission system in Kyiv region and the capital. For hundreds of thousands of consumers, blackout schedules were introduced.
At the same time, Ukrainian intelligence reported Moscow’s plans for this winter. The Russians will try to halt three of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants. The Kremlin also aims to paralyze the country’s largest cities — Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro, and Kharkiv.
The authorities are urging international partners to bolster Ukraine’s air defense. The effectiveness of intercepting Russian missiles and drones will determine how the country gets through this winter. Yet preparations for the next heating season have also revealed unforeseen problems.
Russians are adjusting tactics of strikes against Ukrainian energy authorities.
From the idea of provoking a blackout in Ukraine, Russia has never abandoned. Over the year, drones and missiles periodically attacked the energy sector. However, it is obvious that a new phase of terror has begun now.
Attack on Kyiv 30 September 2026 r
30 In September, Russians delivered the first massive blow to the energy sector in the new season. Kyiv and the region were under attack. The Kremlin sought to cause a collapse in the capital. Russians want to cut off energy supply to the city. To this end, they are using upgraded drones capable of severing high-voltage lines.
According to adviser to the president Serhiy Beskrestnov, Russians have installed on drones munitions weighing 40 kg and four impact modules. In the previous heating season, this type of armament did not exist. Therefore it is logical that now the attempts to destroy power lines will increase, especially those lines connecting the two banks of the Dnipro.
“This is a cumulative munition; it can ruin supports like a tank turret. During this attack on Kyiv, one power line was destroyed in exactly this way. Is it more dangerous than other Russian weapons? In my view, no. Restoring a support is definitely easier than restoring a substation. The enemy began this energy terror in advance, not in the middle of winter,” says Pavlo Lakiichuk, head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI.”
Pavlo Lakiichuk
Meanwhile, Russians are attempting to destroy generation facilities around Kyiv. Drones and missiles were directed at the Trypillia Thermal Power Plant and the hydropower complex on the Dnieper.
Disconnection schedules returned to the capital: first emergency, then planned. However, they lasted only briefly.
“Remember all the rules: do not ride in elevators if there is power — use it sparingly,” wrote on social media the head of YASNO, Serhiy Kovalenko.
Russians also want to destroy a high-voltage substation in Kyiv region that is responsible for transmitting electricity from the nuclear power plants in the west of the country to Kyiv. In other words, the enemy is approaching attacks comprehensively and has several moves left (though they are completely predictable).
Generation inside Kyiv is also under attack. Drones and missiles are being directed at heat plants that heat the city in winter and simultaneously generate electricity.
Smoke over apartment buildings after night shelling of Kyiv.
“The main task of the enemy is to blackout Kyiv and its agglomeration and then not to allow the city to receive heat. Unfortunately, the Russian spy network works well. We saw this on the example of the Darnytska CHP. As soon as there was black smoke above the chimney, i.e., repairs had been completed, that night it was hit again, including the machine hall. The same happened to another CHP in Kyiv,” says energy expert, professor Stanislav Ignatyev of Poltava Polytechnic.
Obviously, the next stages of Russian terror foresee attempts to destroy key facilities responsible for water supply and sewerage systems. This is a serious challenge for Kyiv and for other cities as well.
Ukrainian intelligence obtained strategic documents describing the Russians’ tactics for the next heating season. This was mentioned by, among others, Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal. The Kremlin has ordered causing a collapse in winter in large Ukrainian cities. The priority for Russia is Kyiv, Odesa, and Kharkiv.
Russians plan to act in several waves. First, the Kremlin wants to cut off the import of electricity from the EU. To this end, Russians plan to attack substations and interconnectors in the western regions of Ukraine — Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Zakarpattia.
Second, Moscow wants to focus on destroying domestic electricity generation in Ukraine. So missiles and drones will again target TPPs and HPPs.
“Why do they hit the working halls so accurately, as with the Trypillia TPP? Because until 2014 year certain works there were conducted by a Russian company: they have fairly precise schemes,” adds Stanislav Ignatyev.
Stanislav Ignatyev
Simultaneously, Russians will try to shut down three operating Ukrainian nuclear power plants: Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, and Pivdenouzka. To this end, they will strike substations responsible for taking electricity from the AES into the grid.
According to The New York Times, the Kremlin aims to destroy up to 15 GW of Ukraine’s generating capacity. For perspective, this is slightly less than the country’s peak electricity consumption last winter.
None of these steps by the adversaries is new for Ukrainian military and energy workers. The question is whether Ukraine will have something to respond with to these attacks.
Last year, Russians also attacked interconnectors on the border and tried to shut down nuclear power plants. By the way, in this regard, previous years had shown the IAEA’s impotence. If Russia again tries to stop Ukraine’s nuclear stations, the IAEA will have a fine opportunity to demonstrate its effectiveness.
Russians practically attack the energy sector daily. Therefore, in some regions the situation remains very fragile; if the energy balance is disrupted, outages are possible. In Ukrenergo, consumers are urged to use heavy devices during daytime when solar power plants are still active and there is no peak load. In the evening, however, electricity should be conserved, especially during 17:00 to 22:00.
Washing machine startup.
“The new stage of energy confrontation has practically begun. Its outcome will depend not only on Ukraine’s ability to restore its energy system after strikes, but also on how effectively it will be possible to reduce Russia’s resource potential to continue this war,” writes Volodymyr Omelchenko, director of Energy Programs at the Razumkov Centre.
Has the country managed to prepare for the next heating season?
Since August, electricity consumption in Ukraine has fallen rapidly. In August, the lowest level on record was reached — 5.6 TWh, and September continued the trend. The reason is Russian strikes on industry and export blockades, which halted large metallurgical enterprises.
On the one hand, more generation will be redirected to residential consumers and critical infrastructure. But on the other hand, the shutdown of large industrial enterprises will have a negative impact on the energy system.
The balancing process may become more difficult when all nuclear power plants come offline for planned repairs. The total capacity of all units is almost 8 GW; last weeks’ minimum demand in the grid has already been lower.
Prime Minister Serhiy Kuryetsky says Ukraine prepared better for the next winter than last year. Yet there are problems: for instance, budget deficits led to a complete paralysis of government funding for resilience plans. These documents originally envisioned about 1.5 GW of distributed generation. The government now calls resilience plans overly ambitious.
Prime Minister of Ukraine Serhiy Kuryetsky
“I think this year we will build about 1 GW of solar (PV), another 700-800 MW of wind. I think about 500 MW of new gas generation,” says Andriy Herus, head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Energy.
By the end of the year, Ukrainian energy should have enough generation capacities to meet the country’s needs. But again, it will depend on the main factor — how effectively Ukraine can repel Russian attacks.
Physical protection of energy infrastructure is also important. In frontline regions, since November last year, works have been carried out by the State Agency for Restoration. In total, 120 facilities: large substations, water supply systems, and thermal generation facilities.
“Some substations on 330 kV, which have protection installed, survived more than 60 direct hits from Shahed drones. But this does not mean that if a ballistic missile hits there, it will withstand and transmit electricity. We understand the situation in Sumy, in Zaporizhzhia, how many KA-BIVs, missiles, drones and everything else are flying. And these cities have water, heat. It all works,” explains Serhiy Sukhomlin, former head of the State Agency for Restoration and Development of Infrastructure.
Serhiy Sukhomlin, former head of the State Agency for Restoration and Development of Infrastructure of Ukraine.
Another more than half a thousand objects this year were to be equipped with physical protection by communities themselves. These works were supposed to be carried out under resilience plans. However, budget crises led the government to halt funding.
Serhiy Sukhomlin explains that many materials for building physical protection (for example, rebar) are no longer produced in Ukraine and must be imported.
“With the resilience plans, the risks (from Russian shelling — LB.ua) will be significantly reduced. The question is that funding is currently blocked, and this will seriously affect the implementation of this program,” says the former agency head.
Ukraine has made tangible progress in building physical protection, says Roman Nitsovich, co-founder and director of research at the DiXi Group Analytical Center. For example, at Ukrenergo’s trunk substations, a second line of defense has been erected. This includes massive reinforced concrete structures, detonation shields, and drone counter-netting above autotransformers, adds the expert. In total, about two hundred such structures.
Appearance of second-level protective structures after enemy strikes.
At the same time, Roman Nitsovich notes risks created by funding constraints due to budget deficits. It is not about a complete collapse of projects, but about slippage in their timelines.
And although the Finance Ministry speaks not of a total cancellation of funds but of deferring payments to December, this may not fix the situation.
“But effectively since mid-September payments for capital expenditures have not been made, including for works already completed. This creates a cascading effect: contractors cannot settle with suppliers and creditors, and the timing of protective structures’ commissioning is pushed back,” explains Roman Nitsovich.
The expert adds that, at the same time, works funded by international partners, business, and state companies can continue without such delays.
Appearance of second-level protective structures after enemy strikes.
Government: there is enough fuel for the winter.
Ukraine has already accumulated 16 billion cubic meters of gas in underground storage. And this is almost a quarter more than last year. In other words, the figure has already surpassed the government’s baseline indicator of 14 billion cubic meters for winter.
Gas consumption is currently very low due to Russian strikes on industry and the shutdown of several plants. Domestic production is currently sufficient for both current needs and for further injection. As of 1, gas in storage in November will be even higher.
“The accumulation plan is fulfilled. With all due respect, it is fortunate that demand dropped so much that Naftogaz could accumulate the necessary volumes without any imports. Because it has no money for imports, and no expectation of it,” says the head of the Center for Energy Studies, Oleksandr Kharchenko.
When calculating gas reserves for winter, one important parameter should be considered, says energy sector expert Hennadiy Ryabtsev. It is so-called buffer fuel: the amount of gas that cannot be withdrawn upward in winter.
“These statements refer to an absolute figure; from it you must subtract the buffer and long-term gas storage. And that, excuse me, equals 4,7 billion cubic meters. It turns out that we still need to accumulate and accumulate. This confusion between the absolute filling of storage and the volumes of gas that can actually be used has a suspicious look. The real figure is over 11 billion,” says the expert.
At the same time, the government has not yet dared to permit restricted gas sales to the European market. This was requested, in particular, by private producers.
The cabinet wants to hedge its bets. On one hand, restricted gas exports could provide the industry with currency inflows. Prices on the European market remain high.
There is enough coal for the winter. The total stockpiled at thermal power plants already reaches 1,7 million tons. This should be enough for generation; the question is whether there will be somewhere to burn such a volume.
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