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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
Further Ukrainian strikes on military and industrial facilities in the Moscow region may increase pressure on the Russian leadership, but in themselves they do not guarantee a quick turning point in the war. Military experts believe that the significance of such attacks lies in simultaneously reducing Russia’s capabilities, demonstrating Ukrainian potential, and the psychological effect inside Russia.
Military analyst Oleksandr Musiyenko believes that attacks on Moscow and the Moscow region will continue. He notes that a large number of facilities associated with command, communications, military infrastructure, and defense industry are concentrated in this region.
Separately important are enterprises that work on missile and unmanned technology. According to Musiyenko, strikes against such targets have direct military significance because they affect Russia’s ability to continue the war.
Another effect of such attacks is the demonstration that Ukrainian strike means are capable of reaching the capital region of the Russian Federation. The analyst believes this may influence the moods of Russian elites and how ordinary residents perceive the war.
At the same time, Moscow remains one of the most defended regions of Russia. The capital is surrounded by significant anti-aircraft defense forces that Russia has been building since Soviet times and continues to strengthen.
Musiyenko notes that the situation has changed compared to 2024 year and the first half of 2025. Ukrainian drones are increasingly reaching the Moscow region, and the Russian authorities are forced to temporarily close airspace and limit civilian aviation.
The expert believes that breaking through Moscow’s air defense will have significance not only military but also political. Moscow remains a privileged region, while in other parts of Russia social payments are being reduced and fuel problems arise.
According to his assessment, increased pressure on the capital could influence internal moods in Russia and add to Ukraine’s arguments in possible future negotiations. At the same time, a direct link between individual strikes on Moscow and a rapid end to the war remains only a scenario, not a guaranteed consequence.
Musiyenko also notes that Russia continues to strengthen the capital’s air defense. According to him, several echelons of air defense have formed around Moscow, and additional complexes are being deployed near key facilities.
Despite this, there is no absolute protection, in the analyst’s view. Ukrainian means have already penetrated the defense of the capital region and reached individual targets, notably in the Kapotnya area.
Military blogger Sergiy Misyura also warns against overestimating the Moscow direction’s effect. He emphasizes that due to the high density of air defense, a large portion of strike systems can be intercepted even during approach.
Therefore, in his opinion, when choosing targets, one must consider the ratio of resources spent to the result. At the same time, Misyura concedes that strikes on the Moscow region have a noticeable psychological effect when flights are canceled or infrastructure problems arise.
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