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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
News of a possible plague outbreak in Irkutsk Oblast, Russia, has sparked concern far beyond its borders. The trigger was the death of a young female employee at a research institute; however, there is still no confirmation of plague infection, and the circumstances of the incident remain unclear.
Pediatrician Yevgen Komarovsky, in an exclusive interview with 24 Channel, explained which details of this story truly deserve attention. He questioned the widespread version of accidental infection in a laboratory and discussed what might lie behind the alarming reports from Russia.
The death of a institute employee does not confirm a plague outbreak.
The basis for reports of a possible epidemic was the death of a young woman who worked at the plague research institute in Irkutsk. She was hospitalized with pneumonia of unknown etiology, i.e., inflammation of the lungs, for which the exact pathogen had not been identified. The combination of such a diagnosis with the deceased’s place of work prompted assumptions about possible infection with a particularly dangerous pathogen.
However, an unidentified cause of pneumonia by itself does not indicate cover-up of a dangerous disease. Even modern diagnostic methods do not always allow identifying the exact microorganism that caused the pneumonia. Komarovsky noted that similar cases occur outside laboratories that work with dangerous infections.
When a young healthy person dies from pneumonia, such cases, unfortunately, do occur; at least in 50% of cases medicine has no answer to the question of which microbe killed the person. That is, in the diagnosis of 'pneumonia of unknown etiology' there is nothing unusual,
— explained Komarovsky.
Much more questions arose for the doctor from the reaction of Russian institutions and the lack of a clear official statement. After the woman’s illness, as reported, about 200 people who could have contact with her were hospitalized and started being given antibiotics. Such measures could be related to suspicions of a dangerous infection, but they do not yet prove that the illness in question was plague.
In the case of pulmonary disease, after the time that has passed since the incident, new cases among contacts could have appeared. At the same time, there were no reliable reports of additional infections or deaths. Komarovsky doubts that a large-scale spread of the infection could be fully hidden.
And if it were, it would be very, very hard to hide. Something would necessarily leak that someone else fell ill or died. There is no such information. That is, there is no impression that the outbreak is expanding. Again, we do not know what the outbreak would be. Plague has not been confirmed by anyone,
— emphasized the doctor.
Lack of objective information worries not only Ukraine but also other states. In particular, questions arise in countries where Russians travel from Irkutsk Oblast, because without reliable data it is impossible even to assess the nature of the potential threat.
Komarovsky ridiculed the version of a broken test tube.
Among the explanations for the incident appeared a story that a 28-year-old female employee allegedly accidentally broke a test tube with the plague agent and became infected. Komarovsky treated this version with extreme skepticism, drawing attention to the specifics of working with dangerous materials.
For the emergence of pulmonary disease under such a scenario, the woman would have had to directly inhale the pathogen. At the same time, the version implies that the employee carried the dangerous material without proper protective clothing, and after breaking the test tube began to collect it. Such a combination of circumstances, the doctor called unconvincing.
When you hear all these talks about how the woman 28 years old broke a test tube, it sounds roughly like: Sergeant Ivanov took a nuclear bomb and accidentally launched or dropped it. Something like that,
— said Komarovsky.
At the same time, a large-scale reaction by Russian agencies does not necessarily mean that a dangerous pathogen really got outside the laboratory. Institutions that work with such materials must respond even to minor suspicions of potential infection.
Therefore, the hospitalization of contacts and the appointment of antibiotics could have been ordinary precautions. The doctor does not rule out that the responsible services decided to be as cautious as possible, without waiting for confirmation of a specific infection.
If there was some incident at the institute and they were worried even for 1% of a moment that something could happen, they should have responded. They responded in accordance with the protocols. They were being overly cautious,
— explained the doctor.
However, the Russian side did not provide enough information to dispel questions about the circumstances of the death of the employee. Komarovsky noted that the international community expects explanations, while Russian institutions, it seems, are not rushing to provide them. Because of this, even ordinary anti-epidemic measures began to be perceived as possible confirmation of a large-scale emergency.
In the Russian institute, they could have worked with more than just plague.
Most importantly, Komarovsky believes, is the question of whether this is really plague in Irkutsk. The institute’s name and reports of the death of its employee do not yet allow establishing which pathogen or other dangerous substance could have caused the incident.
Anti-plague institutions handle a wide range of especially dangerous infections, study toxins, and implement anti-epidemic measures. Therefore, the doctor does not exclude that the cause of death could have been a completely different illness or even exposure to a dangerous substance. At the same time, there were no confirmations of such versions during the discussion.
Plague is a fancy headline, but in reality imagining that plague threatens us is practically impossible. But thinking that anything could be there... We can only guess,
— noted Komarovsky.
Among purely hypothetical scenarios, he even recalled the possibility of contact with a toxic substance similar to Novichok. However, he immediately noted that such development is unlikely and there are no grounds to consider it more credible than the plague version.
The problem is that the very name of a anti-plague institute pushes people toward the simplest explanation. Meanwhile, other directions of the institution’s work remain out of sight, although its employees may work with various pathogens and dangerous materials.
The anti-plague institute deals with a huge number of other especially dangerous infections. It also deals with infectious toxins, and studies anti-epidemic measures. So there is something else for this institute to do besides plague,
— emphasized the doctor.
Komarovsky also drew attention to the information noise around Russian laboratories. Earlier, Russia spread stories about allegedly Ukrainian biolabs and battle mosquitoes, and now the target of such assumptions has shifted to Russian scientific institutions. The doctor called this a kind of informational boomerang, but stressed that he would like to see its consequences for the Kremlin rather than for ordinary residents of Irkutsk.
Yevgeny Komarovsky on plague in Irkutsk: watch the video
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Чума в Росії може виявитися не чумою: Комаровський вказав на дивні деталі". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: Channel 24.
