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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
Military analyst Kovalenko forecasted when the Russian Federation army may face serious difficulties
At the end of 2026 year and at the beginning of 2027, on certain sections of the front, Russian forces may encounter operational-tactical failures due to shortages of personnel and logistics problems.
According to military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko, the enemy will find it increasingly difficult to correct the situation in a number of directions.
According to the analyst, personnel shortages may significantly affect the course of hostilities already by the end of 2026 year. In particular, he noted negative trends for the Russian forces on the Lyman direction.
Kovalenko also assumes that problems may intensify at the border of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk regions, in particular in the direction of Velyka Novosilka.
Separately, the analyst drew attention to the situation on the Zaporizhzhia direction. According to him, if the Russian 58-ma army finally loses the Stepnohirsk bridgehead and withdraws to Kamianske or further south, in particular to Vasylivka, and control over the route 0812 is lost, this will become a serious operational-tactical setback for the Russian forces.
According to Kovalenko, by the end of 2026 year — the beginning of 2027 year, the number of such problematic areas may increase, and the capabilities of the Russian command to fix the situation will be limited.
Among directions where the enemy will find it particularly difficult to stabilize the situation, the analyst named Slobozhanskyi, Kupianskyi, and Lyman directions, as well as the southern operational zone. One of the reasons he cites is problems with military logistics.
As an example, Kovalenko cited data for 4 October, when, in his words, a record amount of Russian road transport — 727 units per day — was struck.
At the same time, the analyst's forecast concerns the possible development of the situation on separate front-line sectors. It does not mean that the collapse of the Russian defense along the entire line of contact is inevitable.
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Військовий аналітик Коваленко спрогнозував, коли армія РФ може зіткнутися із серйозними труднощами". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: ANTIKOR.
