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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
The White House, through diplomatic channels, threatened to stop providing Ukraine with intelligence about possible Russian ballistic attacks if Kyiv does not stop strikes on Russian oil refineries. During the shelling of Kyiv on 12 October, the air raid siren sounded only after Russian ballistic missiles had struck the capital. Partners likewise did not warn about the shelling of the capital on 13 October, Volodymyr Zelensky said. Journalist Korotko pro investigated how critical the lack of intelligence could be and whether there is an alternative.
What US intelligence provides
Exchanging intelligence with the United States is one of the most powerful non-public tools of American foreign policy and military support for Ukraine. The US has the most extensive and technologically advanced intelligence network in the world, including the CIA, the NSA, and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency. The data obtained enables preventive warnings about Russian ballistic strikes.
US satellites can detect preparations for attacks even before they begin. American real-time early warning systems inform partners about launches of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as takeoffs of strategic aviation, allowing civilian lives to be saved and air defenses to be deployed.
Providing Kyiv with high-resolution satellite imagery and electronic intelligence intercepts in near-real time allows it to see enemy troop movements, logistics hubs, and changes on the front line.
Those same images allow determining coordinates of fixed and mobile targets, avoiding Russian air defense zones, plotting safe routes for Ukrainian UAVs and missiles, and conducting subsequent damage assessment analysis.
How the intelligence-sharing mechanism is arranged
US intelligence cooperation is built on a strictly hierarchical basis under interagency agreements. The first level is the intelligence alliance "Five Eyes" (Five Eyes/FVEY), which includes the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Here exchange occurs with almost no restrictions.
Next comes NATO itself, within which intelligence exchange is carried out through specialized platforms such as BICES (Battlefield Information Collection and Exploitation System).
Exchange can also occur under bilateral agreements, including memoranda of understanding and special classified agreements on the security of military information. They clearly define which categories of data may be transferred to a particular country. Ukraine belongs to this format. The main framework document is the bilateral security agreement between Ukraine and the United States, signed for a ten-year term. Specific articles of that treaty explicitly enshrine Washington's long-term commitments to provide Kyiv with military and intelligence assistance.
Can US intelligence be replaced
Military analysts agree that completely replacing US-provided information if it were cut off would be difficult, but certain alternatives do exist. France and the United Kingdom have their own sovereign capabilities, including satellites and signals intelligence aircraft, and actively duplicate some American functions, but they do not have the same global data-processing capacities.
European optical and radar reconnaissance satellites operate independently of the Pentagon. The leader of the European orbital constellation is France with its CSO (Composante Spatiale Optique) series satellites. These are military high-capability spacecraft that can image targets in extreme conditions and identify specific types of military equipment even under camouflage. Paris also has the dual-use Pléiades Neo satellites, whose data are directly used by France's Directorate-General for External Security (DGSE) for military needs.
The United Kingdom also has its own constellation of sovereign military optical satellites. London is currently investing in the Minerva system, which is an independent space reconnaissance system.
German SAR-Lupe and SARah satellites, as well as Italian COSMO-SkyMed, use synthetic-aperture radar. They can see through dense clouds, fog, and at night. For Ukraine, where persistent cloud cover is observed in autumn and winter, SAR-satellite data are critically important for tracking the movement of Russian columns.
In addition, Kyiv can turn to commercial intelligence (Commercial ISR), that is, buy satellite imagery from private operators such as Maxar or Planet Labs, and use open-source data (OSINT). This gives an overall picture but does not provide instant combat coordination or real-time warnings of missile launches. The main downside of the commercial track is the lack of operational coordination and data for air defenses. Moreover, no commercial company has systems to detect ballistic missile launches. American SBIRS (Space-Based Infrared System) satellites detect a rocket's heat signature a second before launch. Commercial satellites cannot do this, so without the US, Ukraine would lose precious minutes of warning about missile attacks.
Expert opinion
Oleksandr Kovalenko, military analyst:
- I think that we have been receiving American intelligence and will continue to receive it. This is a temporary phenomenon connected to Donald Trump putting pressure on Kyiv again. There is an important nuance here. Donald Trump in his decisions is constrained by the bipartisan system in Congress and the Senate. Currently his actions are displeasing both Democrats and Republicans. Especially Republicans, whose electoral support is significantly worsened by Trump's actions. All of this will undoubtedly affect his future decision-making and how those decisions are implemented.
Decisions about providing intelligence to Kyiv will not be made personally by Trump but collectively, taking into account the views of the intelligence community and the political establishment. If he moves to limit data, he will get a negative reaction from both the press and the US political establishment. Therefore, I think we will continue to receive intelligence.
But if we talk about diversification, that possibility exists. We can use intelligence from our European partners—namely France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Italy. Although the US has a much larger satellite and intelligence network in the world that allows obtaining more complete information even from deep inside the Russian Federation, in our case the priority is not the deep rear and the level of deep strikes, but receiving timely information at the operational-tactical level regarding operational-tactical missile systems. European partners can provide us with that. If the appropriate decisions are made, such support will be established very quickly.
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Як розвіддані США допомагають Україні та чим їх можна замінити". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: KP.UA.
