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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
Russia is losing satellites meant to replace Starlink, but they are falling: what is known about the military potential of "Rassvet"
Two satellites of the Russian satellite internet system "Rassvet" failed to reach their planned operational orbits and are gradually losing altitude. According to orbital forecasts, craft No.23 could deorbit on 29 October, and No.17 on 1 November 2026. This is another problem for the Russian project that Moscow is developing as an alternative to Western satellite communication systems. For Ukraine, its development has not only technological but also direct security significance: Russian forces have already tested "Rassvet" for communications over Ukrainian territory, UNN reports.
Data from orbital monitoring indicate problems with the satellites launched in July by Bureau 1440. Current forecasts show the craft are losing roughly 1,6–1,7 km of altitude per day. If they cannot correct their trajectories, they may enter the atmosphere and burn up.
Satellite communications for the Russian military
"Rassvet" is being developed as a low-Earth-orbit satellite internet network intended to give Russia its own communications infrastructure and reduce dependence on foreign technologies. However, the project's significance is not limited to civilian internet.
According to Janes, Ukrainian military intelligence recorded Russian forces using the first group of "Rassvet" satellites for satellite communications over Ukraine for several hours. The intelligence also noted that the system could potentially be used for real-time data transmission and for controlling reconnaissance and strike drones.
This is an important signal for Ukraine. Satellite communications can help Russian forces coordinate actions, transmit information, and support control of unmanned systems. Deploying their own network would also allow Russia to reduce dependence on commercial systems whose access is controlled by Western companies.
At the same time, the current capabilities of "Rassvet" should not be overstated. Analysts quoted by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimate that the existing constellation does not yet provide continuous large-scale coverage, and technical problems with the second batch of satellites could complicate system deployment.
So Russia has not yet created a full-fledged analog of Starlink, but it is already working on infrastructure that could potentially strengthen its military capabilities in the war against Ukraine.
Two satellites may burn up at the end of October
Satellites No.17 and No.23 belong to a batch of 16 craft that Bureau 1440 launched in July 2026. After insertion into low Earth orbit, they were supposed to use onboard propulsion systems to climb to the required altitude.
However, some of the craft failed to reach their planned orbits. According to ISW, by the end of August none of the second-batch satellites had yet reached the expected operational altitude. Some were on lower orbits, and a few were gradually losing altitude.
The problems are not new. In June, satellite No.4 from the first serial batch launched in March deorbited. It also could not perform the maneuvers needed to gain altitude.
The precise technical causes of the malfunctions of satellites No.17 and No.23 have not yet been established. The mere fact of an unsuccessful orbital maneuver does not prove that all cases were caused by a single defect or a specific manufacturing problem.
Nevertheless, recurring difficulties are already creating risks for deploying the network. A satellite that cannot reach its planned orbit is not necessarily able to provide communications on the terms and for the duration the operator expects.
Russia plans hundreds of satellites, but losses complicate deployment
According to Russian plans, the commercial launch of the "Rassvet" service is to take place in 2027. By 2030 the constellation is planned to be expanded to 292 satellites. Overall, the program has already launched 38 craft: six experimental and two serial batches of 16 satellites.
However, the number of launched craft does not equal the number of satellites ready to provide full services. Stable communications require that they reach their required orbits, operate properly, and provide sufficient coverage.
The loss of three satellites out of 32 craft from the two serial batches is an additional burden on the program. The problem is not only the cost of lost equipment: faulty craft must be replaced, and manufacturing, launching, and bringing new satellites into service require time and resources.
At the same time, there is insufficient data to claim that the commercial service launch in 2027 has already been disrupted. Reaching that conclusion would require knowledge of production rates, the schedule of upcoming launches, and plans for replacing craft.
Hundreds of billions of rubles for technological independence
The "Rassvet" project is tied to a broader Russian strategy to create its own critical infrastructure. Its financing includes about 102,8 billion rubles from the federal budget and 329 billion rubles of private investment. The total estimated investment exceeds 430 billion rubles.
For Moscow, such a system has strategic significance: it seeks control over satellite communications channels that can be used for both civilian needs and military tasks. This is especially important given Russian forces' limited access to Western commercial systems.
At the same time, there is no confirmation that sanctions or a shortage of foreign components directly caused the current malfunctions. Problems with orbital maneuvers indicate difficulties deploying the system, but without additional evidence they do not allow identifying the specific cause of each failure.
A demonstration of communications is not yet a full network
On 7 October, Bureau 1440 conducted a public five-minute video call between Adygea and Moscow using the "Rassvet" system. This indicates the project can already provide communications under certain conditions.
However, a single demonstration does not prove that Russia has a network capable of operating stably over a large territory and providing continuous connectivity to a large number of users. That requires a numerous and reliable satellite constellation.
That is why problems with the new craft matter not only for Bureau 1440's commercial plans. If Russia intends to use "Rassvet" for military communications, it needs to ensure system stability and adequate coverage. Failed launches and satellite losses can complicate achieving that goal.
Recall, Norway is strengthening its border with Russia due to increased espionage and hybrid threats — bolstering forces in the north and cooperating with NATO.
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Два супутники російського "Рассвета" можуть згоріти в атмосфері: система потрібна рф і для війни проти України". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: СтопКор.
