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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
In September, steel production in Ukraine decreased by 79%. In October the output could approach zero. For the revival of metallurgical enterprises, not only safer working conditions are needed but also the relaxation of EU trade restrictions, in particular quotas on steel imports and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism CBAM. This was stated by GMK Center chief analyst Andriy Tarasenko in a column on a professional portal.
According to the analyst, up to half of Ukrainian steel production was destined for the European market. In July of this year, new EU trade restrictions worsened export conditions, and steel output in Ukraine fell by 35% compared with the previous month.
Tarasenko noted that at that moment the consequences of the sea blockade had not yet fully manifested, so one of the main factors of the decline was precisely the trade restrictions.
"Some of the metallurgical capacities would have been shut down for economic reasons even without Russian shelling," he stated.
Now, after systematic Russian attacks on industrial infrastructure, the possibility of restoring plants also depends on access conditions to the European market. According to Tarasenko, investors and lenders must understand where enterprises will be able to sell products over the next 12–24 months before investing funds in repairing and starting up blast furnaces or electric arc furnaces.
"Relaxation of EU restrictions would be a signal that Ukrainian metallurgy has a future," he emphasized.
Domestic demand, according to the analyst, is insufficient to fully load production capacities. In the first half of 2026 year, Ukrainian enterprises delivered 1,1 million tons of metal products to the domestic market. With nominal steelmaking capacity of about 8 million tons per year, this is not enough for the operation of large integrated mills.
As Tarasenko explained, blast furnaces, coke ovens, and converters have a technological minimum load. Operating below this level leads to a sharp increase in production costs.
"Another problem is the irregular domestic demand, which in recent years has largely depended on state projects. Therefore, before the start of large-scale postwar reconstruction, plants need to preserve the ability to operate in export markets," he says.
Prolonged idling of enterprises, according to the analyst, creates risks of rising restoration costs and loss of skilled workers. In addition, Ukraine may miss out on foreign exchange earnings from metal product exports. 2025 year the export of pig iron and steel brought the country $3,7 billion.
Tarasenko urged taking into account the specifics of Ukrainian metallurgy when determining trade terms with the EU. According to him, Ukraine and the European Union are joined by common production chains, but Ukrainian enterprises operate under wartime conditions, attacks on infrastructure, and additional logistics constraints.
"There is no point in separating the interests of Ukrainian and European metallurgy. We share value creation chains and common problems: imports, high energy prices, the need for decarbonization. Ukraine requires a special approach, as reflected in the regulation: as a candidate country for membership and as a country suffering losses from war. The economic conditions for industry operation in Ukraine and in other countries cannot be compared. It is undesirable to apply the same approaches to a country where people, plants, and infrastructure live daily under shelling, and to all other countries," Tarasenko concluded.
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Без пом'якшення квот ЄС і CBAM відновлення української металургії під загрозою – GMK Center". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: Gordon.
