Putin believes this winter he can break Ukrainian resistance – The Telegraph

Russia hopes to break Ukrainian resistance this winter by intensifying strikes not only on energy infrastructure but also on transportation, industrial, and digital infrastructure. Moscow is trying to undermine the Ukrainian economy and deprive the population of basic living conditions. This is reported by Hlavkom, citing The Telegraph.

As the publication notes, since the end of August the character of Russian attacks has changed. Kyiv is increasingly hit during the day, and at the beginning of October Russian forces for the first time since the start of the full-scale invasion attacked the North and South bridges over the Dnipro. Russia has also intensified strikes on gas infrastructure. Since the beginning of 2026 year, Naftogaz facilities have suffered more than 300 attacks against 229 over the entire 2025 year.

In September, Russian troops began attacking data processing centers and telecommunications facilities. This caused disruptions to communications, air raid alert systems, and certain state services. Railways, ports, warehouses, and industrial enterprises came under fire. According to The Telegraph, from the beginning of the year trains and Ukrzaliznytsia facilities have suffered 1700 strikes. Due to shelling, transportation of agricultural products became more difficult, and in September Ukraine exported only 2,4 million tons of agricultural goods – about 46% of normal volume.

One of the reasons for the intensified attacks, the publication says, is the development of Russian attack drones. Jet Geranium-4 and Geranium-5 can reach speeds of up to 600 km/h and attack moving targets. After their appearance, the effectiveness of interception initially declined from about 90% to less than 60%.

At the same time, Oleksandr Danilyuk, head of the Ukrainian Center for Defense Reforms, regards the main reason as Russia’s advantage in defense industry production. He says Moscow has shifted its economy onto wartime rails, while the West has not done so on a comparable scale.

According to Ukrainian military intelligence, cited by The Telegraph, Russia produces more than 200 ballistic and cruise missiles each month and about 3000 unmanned combat aerial vehicles. In contrast, Ukraine plans to produce up to 400 interceptors per month of reactive drones by the end of October.

Nevertheless, the publication emphasizes that Russia’s strategy is not guaranteed to succeed. Ukraine is developing backup generation, protecting energy grids, and introducing new counter-drone measures. Gas reserves ahead of winter also exceed last year. Moreover, according to a Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KMIS) poll, over 60% of Ukrainians are prepared to endure the war for as long as necessary. Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko notes that despite suppressed moods, there are no signs of a dramatic collapse in morale.

Danilyuk also cautions that without ramping up arms production with Western allies, Ukraine will struggle to resist Russia’s strategy of attrition.

As a reminder, earlier The Economist reported that Russia is preparing a large-scale campaign against Kyiv, with a peak possible in November. According to the publication, Moscow plans to combine massive strikes on civilian and critical infrastructure with diversions and attempts to destabilize politics. Potential targets of Russian attacks included data centers, supermarkets, energy facilities, water supply, and sewage systems.

Additionally, Ukrainian intelligence warned of the risk of intensified sabotage and terrorist attacks. According to counterintelligence, seven to eight Russian operations are prevented weekly in Ukraine. Moscow also seeks to use misinformation to spread panic and provoke political instability.