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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
An agreement between U.S. President Donald Trump and the illegitimate president of the aggressor country Russia, Vladimir Putin, to ease sanctions restrictions on the export of Russian diesel could bring Moscow not so much financial gain as political advantage. Media outlet CNBC wrote this on October 17, citing analysts.
Experts estimate that additional supplies of Russian diesel fuel to the global market are unlikely to significantly affect prices. Former head of the oil industry and markets division at the International Energy Agency (IEA) Neil Atkinson called the U.S.-Russia diesel deal "very small."
At the same time, senior fellow and head of the economics department at the NEST center Serhiy Aleksashenko assessed the potential benefit to the Russian budget at less than $30 million per month, or less than 0,07% of monthly federal revenues. According to NYT calculations, Russia could receive a total of $4 billion, and according to WSJ estimates, up to $4,5 billion. Aleksashenko said Moscow’s main gain is not financial but political. Putin already has relief from sanctions pressure without any concessions from the Kremlin and seeks to weaken Western unity.
Senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Maria Snegova warned that this agreement could prompt the Kremlin to make further demands for sanctions relief. The exemption for exports of Russian diesel, which will be in effect until April 2027, potentially opens the way to increasing exports of the fuel beyond the initially announced 4,8 million tons.
CNBC noted that an additional challenge for Ukraine is the restrictions on Starshield, the so-called military Starlink package. First Deputy Minister for Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Development Serhiy Derkach explained that the situation has created favorable conditions for Russia to intensify attacks. "Russia feels its moment has come to inflict even more pain and suffering on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure," he said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking in Brussels, emphasized that easing sanctions creates a dangerous precedent for further relaxation of restrictions against the aggressor country. He also stressed Ukraine’s dependence on American military technologies and intelligence. According to him, sanctions relief could later extend to the energy sector, the banking system, and other critically important areas.
Snegova also pointed out that almost five years after the full-scale war began, Ukraine and Europe remain largely dependent on the U.S. for intelligence and missile defense. In her assessment, overcoming this dependence before the remainder of Trump’s presidency ends will be extremely difficult.
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item ""Росія відчуває, що настав її момент". Дизельна угода принесе РФ не тільки гроші – CNBC". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: Gordon.
