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Since the start of Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Black Sea has become a region of elevated risk for ships / illustrative photo: pexels. One of the regions in the world has become the most dangerous for sailors of the merchant fleet, and it's not the Strait of Hormuz. As Financial Times writes, this year more sailors died in the Black Sea than in any other body of water, surpassing the number killed in the Persian Gulf.
According to shipowners and maritime organizations, the Black Sea, which is a very important corridor for grain shipments and Russian oil, is riskier for ships than the Middle East.
"Crews of oil tankers, bulk carriers, and grain ships entering the Black Sea near EU and NATO territories are forced to blaze through a hail of attacks by drones, rockets or explosive-laden boats, as Russia and Ukraine intensify their fight over this lifeline route. By some estimates, the number of attacks in the Black Sea is more than six times higher than in the Persian Gulf," analyzes the publication.
In particular, the head of the Ukrainian Maritime Transport Workers' Union, Oleh Hryhoruk, stated:
"In my view, sailing through the Black Sea and calling at Ukrainian ports is almost suicide. There is a general feeling that the threat to life exists constantly."
More than 570 ships were attacked in the Black Sea.
Ambrey and the International Maritime Organization reported that this year more than 570 ships were attacked in the Black Sea, resulting in the deaths of 40 sailors. By comparison, in the Strait of Hormuz there were 24 fatalities.
It is noted that some vessels came under crossfire during port bombardments, while others were targeted by deliberate attacks. According to Ambrey, in the third quarter on average there were more than four attacks per day.
"The situation is simply incredible. In my opinion, every attack on a ship is an attack intended to cause death... If you hit the residential area twice in the same place, the intention is to kill," said Salvatore Adorno, deputy head onshore of the Sicilship company, which operates the "Wine Trader".
At the same time, Romanian President Klaus Iohannis accused Russia of escalating the war on the border of NATO territory.
"Since the start of Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Black Sea has been a region of elevated risk for ships conducting commercial transport. These waters were mine-laden at the very start of the conflict, and despite a lull during the grain export deal brokered by the UN and Turkey, which collapsed in 2023 year, Russia continues to shell Ukrainian ports," FT noted.
The number of attacks on ships has risen sharply.
There are also, on both sides, cases of interference with satellite navigation systems of ships. And this summer attacks in response to ships and port infrastructure reached their most intense level.
"This is a completely different situation. I have been tracking the impact of war on maritime trade for years, but I have never seen anything like this," said Bridget Diakun, director of research at Lloyd’s List Intelligence.
As reported by Ambrey, from July to September about 387 ships were struck — five times more than in the previous quarter.
"One of the causes of the escalation was Ukraine's campaign of using drones against Russian ships, which began to disrupt diesel supply from the Crimea but quickly spread to shipping in the Kerch Strait, where the Sea of Azov connects to the Black Sea," the article notes.
Ambrey also reported that in the last 45 days, hits against Russia accounted for about 90% of the attacks on ships. The consequences of these attacks are well visible in Ukraine's Great Odessa port. According to Ukraine's largest private port operator, TIS, last month the port handled fewer than 10 ships, while in July — about 400.
Attacks: Russia and Ukraine tactics.
Security analysts believe that for crews, hits from both sides have become even more deadly, given that Ukraine began employing Russia's tactics.
"Earlier Ukraine targeted the loading collector or disabled engine room or steering. Now, similar to Russia, they attack bridge and living quarters [of ships], which can lead to more casualties among the crew," emphasized Thomas Alexa, senior analyst at Ambrey.
At the same time, the geography of attacks has become much less selective.
"We truly have an endless war between Russia and Ukraine, which will affect all other Black Sea region states," commented Andriy Klymenko, head of the monitoring group "Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies."
Ukraine's Minister of Agrarian Policy Taras Vysotsky stated that crews are "very afraid" to operate under such conditions.
Attacks on ports threaten Ukrainian grain exports.
Ukraine redirected grain through smaller Danube ports, but the minister noted that it is impossible to fully utilize the capacity of these facilities, as they are constantly under attack.
"Russia is also redirecting grain along much more expensive routes through the Baltic Sea and from Vladivostok to the Far East. According to satellite monitoring by shipbroker IFCHOR Galbraiths, in September the volume of shipments from Black Sea and adjacent Azov ports was 201 000 tonnes, which is one sixth of the level of the previous month," explains Financial Times.
In addition, Moscow began shielding its fleet of oil tankers with anti-drone nets and uses more sophisticated methods to distort GPS signals to avoid damage from Ukrainian drones.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Agrarian Development reported that agricultural exports from Kyiv by sea in August fell to 1,4 million tonnes — about 75% below pre-war levels.
"The greatest risk will manifest not in short-term delays in transportation today, but in the fields of next spring. It is the income from exports that funds fuel, seeds and fertilizers. If port exit channels are blocked and freight costs erode operating profits, small and medium Ukrainian farmers simply will not have funds for sowing," said this month Andriy Verevsky, head of Kernel, a major Ukrainian sunflower oil exporter.
Further escalation in the Black Sea.
Klymenko, an expert who has long followed the Black Sea situation, fears things will get worse unless NATO forces intervene, which is unlikely, despite the European Parliament calling for a naval EU operation in the Black Sea, citing "deadly attacks."
"It is naive to expect any ceasefire in the Black Sea now. Unfortunately, the war will not only continue but also escalate and spread," he added.
Black Sea situation – latest news.
As UNIAN reported, Romania proposes creating a new security framework for the Black Sea. UA Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk said Ukraine welcomes this initiative.
"This is, of course, a matter for the distant future. We, in turn, constantly stay in communication with our neighbors and partners. Regarding initiatives to ensure the safety of civil shipping in our own waters, of course, one can only welcome them. But in any case, it is quite logical that the response to provocations by the Russian Federation must come at some point," he stressed.
The Ukrainian Navy also reacted to Russia's attacks on civilian ships in the Black Sea. Pletenchuk stated that the situation is alarming, as this is already NATO territorial waters.
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