The Black Sea Has Become the Most Dangerous Sea Route in the World

The Black Sea has become more dangerous for commercial vessels than the Persian Gulf: since the start of the year, more than 570 ships have been attacked here, and the number of dead sailors has reached 40. Against the backdrop of intensified strikes by Russia and Ukraine, risks to crews are rising, activity in Ukrainian ports is declining, and threats to grain exports are emerging.

This is written by the Financial Times.

The Black Sea — the most dangerous region for the merchant fleet

The Black Sea remains an important route for transporting Ukrainian grain and Russian oil, but due to the war, shipping here increasingly resembles a combat zone. Crews of oil tankers, cargo ships, and grain carriers risk being hit by drones, missiles, and naval drones.

According to the Ambrey maritime security company and the International Maritime Organization, this year more than 570 ships were attacked in the Black Sea, resulting in the deaths of 40 sailors. For comparison, the Strait of Hormuz is known to have 24 fatalities.

Oleh Hryhoruk, head of the Ukrainian Seafarers' Union, stressed that entering Ukrainian ports and sailing in the Black Sea pose a serious threat to crew lives.

According to Ambrey, in the third quarter the number of attacks rose sharply: from July to September about 387 ships were struck — five times more than in the previous quarter. On average, more than four attacks occurred per day.

Russia intensified strikes on ships

As the Financial Times notes, attacks on the merchant fleet intensified in the summer, when Ukraine stepped up drone strikes on Russian ships, and hostilities spread to the Kerch Strait.

According to Ambrey, over the last 45 days, roughly 90% of the strikes on ships hit Russia. At the same time, danger to crews is rising due to changes in attack tactics.

Ambrey senior analyst Thomas Alexa explained that both sides increasingly strike the bridges and living quarters of vessels. Earlier Ukrainian attacks mainly targeted equipment, engine rooms, or steering systems, whereas the new tactic can lead to a higher number of casualties among sailors.

Additional danger is created by naval mines and interference with satellite navigation systems, making it harder for ships to chart safe routes.

Ukrainian ports are losing transportation volumes

The deteriorating situation is already affecting Ukrainian ports. According to port operator TIS, last month the port served fewer than 10 ships, while in July there were about 400.

Ukraine is trying to reroute part of exports through smaller ports on the Danube. However, their capacity is limited, and port infrastructure is also under attack.

According to data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agrarian Policy, in August the export of agricultural products by sea declined to 1,4 million tonnes — about 75% below pre-war levels.

Russia, for its part, redirects part of grain shipments along more expensive routes through the Baltic Sea and Vladivostok. To protect oil tankers from Ukrainian drones, Moscow also uses anti-drone nets and more complex methods of distorting GPS signals.

Why the escalation is dangerous for Ukrainian farmers

Problems with maritime transport threaten not only the port sector but also farmers’ incomes. Export revenue provides farmers with funds to buy fuel, seeds, and fertilizers needed for the next season.

Andriy Verevsky, head of the large Ukrainian sunflower oil exporter Kernel, warned that prolonged blocking of port routes and rising freight costs could deprive small and medium-sized farms of resources for sowing.

Thus, the consequences of the attacks may manifest not only in reduced freight today but also in reduced agricultural production in the future.

Could the situation in the Black Sea deteriorate further

Experts warn that without effective shipping protection mechanisms, risks could continue to rise. Andriy Klymenko, head of the monitoring group Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies, believes the war will increasingly affect all Black Sea region states.

At the same time, the prospect of an EU naval operation in the Black Sea remains uncertain, despite calls by some European politicians to strengthen the response to attacks.

While hostilities continue, merchant ships, crews, and port infrastructure will remain at risk. Further reductions in sea exports could create additional difficulties for the Ukrainian economy and agricultural sector.

Earlier, Stopkor wrote that 6 in October a Russian strike-drone attacked a civilian merchant vessel under the Marshall Islands flag in the Black Sea, carrying rapeseed oil: a steward was killed, seven other crew members were injured. The vessel was damaged, and a fire broke out on board. This is another case of Russian attacks on civilian shipping, which pose threats to sailors and to Ukrainian agricultural exports.