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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
LibertyLynx analyst speculated that SpaceX could have created conditions for a dangerous close approach between a Russian satellite and the American ICEYE-X36, while simultaneously restricting satellite communication for Ukrainian drones
An analyst under the pseudonym LibertyLynx 25 published in October on the social network X his own scenario of events that occurred in orbit and in Ukraine in mid-October 2026. He suggests that SpaceX, Elon Musk's company, could have intentionally limited the capabilities of Ukrainian drones, and later created obstacles for maneuvering the American radar satellite ICEYE-X36, toward which the Russian spacecraft “Kosmos-2612” was approaching. These accusations remain an unconfirmed hypothesis, not established results of an official investigation.
According to LibertyLynx’s outline on X, two episodes occurring about a day apart could be connected. The first concerned the operation of Starshield/Starlink satellite communication during the Russian attack on Ukraine 13–14 in October. The second was the dangerous close approach of a Russian military satellite to a Western reconnaissance spacecraft.
Starshield restrictions during the Russian shelling
On the night of 14 October, SpaceX imposed restrictions on satellite communication for moving terminals.
According to incident reports, the connection could have been interrupted at speeds of about 72 to 161 km/h. The restrictions affected use by Ukrainian drones, for which a stable satellite link is an important part of control.
LibertyLynx claims that changes occurred during a Russian attack using 39 missiles. In his assessment, the number of successful interceptions by Ukrainian drones decreased by 23%. He also stated problems with communications for American personnel in Kyiv.
At the same time, the indicator cited by the analyst does not match data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). According to ISW, the share of intercepted Russian reactive drones in the period from 14 to 24 October decreased from 77% to about 74%, i.e., by three percentage points.
These figures cannot be equated without clarifying the calculation methodology, observation period, and types of targets. There is no public justification of the figure 23%, which would allow independent verification of LibertyLynx’s conclusion.
Elon Musk stated that decisions regarding Starshield restrictions are made by the U.S. military and, ultimately, the U.S. president. 22 In October, Donald Trump reported the restoration of access.
Dangerous orbital satellite proximity
The second episode that LibertyLynx drew attention to concerns the events of 15 October.
According to data previously highlighted by LeoLabs and Defense News, the Russian military satellite “Kosmos-2612” performed a maneuver and approached the radar satellite ICEYE-X36 at a dangerous distance.
The analyst claims that beforehand SpaceX allegedly issued a warning about a possible collision between ICEYE-X36 and another satellite – Starlink-35856.
According to his calculations, the stated distance between the devices was less than one kilometer, although the actual distance could have been almost five times larger.
LibertyLynx suggests that such a warning could have limited ICEYE-X36’s maneuvering capabilities exactly at the moment when the Russian satellite was approaching.
He also notes that, in his version, SpaceX did not warn about the more dangerous proximity with “Kosmos-2612” and did not change the orbit of its own Starlink-35856.
However, there is no independent evidence that the company issued a false warning or blocked ICEYE-X36 control. Nor is there published evidence that SpaceX transmitted data to the Russian side to carry out a maneuver.
There were no reports of a collision, capture, destruction, or removal of ICEYE-X36 from service.
The analyst assessed the probability of his version at nearly 100%.
In his post, LibertyLynx suggested that the Russian side could have been preparing an operation for several months.
He refers to a prior episode in June, when ICEYE-X36, according to his claim, was already maneuvering to evade the Russian satellite. In the analyst’s view, this time the Russian military needed to deprive the Western apparatus of the ability to change its orbit.
Based on LibertyLynx’s own mathematical model, he estimated the probability of the proposed scenario at 99,89–99,98%.
But this figure is his own assessment, not the result of independent analysis. The publication does not provide the full dataset and methodology that would allow external experts to reproduce the calculations.
There is no public evidence of coordination between SpaceX and the Russian military.
What is confirmed, and what remains an assumption
Currently, publicly reported are two separate episodes: restricting Starshield for Ukrainian terminals in motion and the dangerous proximity of the Russian satellite “Kosmos-2612” to ICEYE-X36.
At the same time, the temporal coincidence of these events does not in itself prove that they were part of a joint operation.
It has not been established that the Starshield restrictions were introduced specifically to weaken Ukrainian defense, nor that the warning about a possible satellite collision was deliberately fabricated.
Thus, LibertyLynx’s version raises questions about the dependence of military communications and orbital infrastructure on private operators, but the accusations he has made against SpaceX require independent verification.
Earlier, StopKor reported the restoration of Starlink and Starshield operation at speeds above 400 km/h. 24 In October it became known that American lawmakers asked Elon Musk to explain the reasons for restricting satellite communications for Ukrainian forces. They expect a response by 31 October.
StopKor also wrote about Starshield restrictions on the night of 14 October. Ukraine’s presidential adviser for technological questions, Serhiy Beskrestnov, confirmed that the military package terminals were losing connectivity while moving at speeds exceeding 160 km/h. According to him, this led to the disruption of several combat missions.
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "SpaceX могла допомогти росії наблизитися до американського супутника: аналітик LibertyLynx висунув версію". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: StopKor.
