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Yesterday’s parliamentary elections in Israel produced unexpected results. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies performed better than expected. Whether Israel’s long-serving prime minister can remain in office, why the election outcome could lead to a new war, and how it might affect Ukraine — read in the article by RBC-Ukraine journalist Milan Lelić. Main points: Incomplete victory for Netanyahu: the pro-government bloc wins, but the final balance of power will be decided by the military votes. Political deadlock: because of the inability to form a coalition, Israel may go to new elections. Risk of war with Iran: to stay in power and avoid trial, Netanyahu could escalate in the region. Impact on Ukraine: a new possible Middle East conflict will deepen the global shortage of Patriot air defense systems and cause oil prices to rise. “Netanyahu lost and must go!” — the main message from the Israeli opposition a few hours after polling stations closed. Some of its supporters even celebrated by jumping into fountains. By morning the euphoria was gone. As votes were counted it became clear that not only Netanyahu’s Likud party comfortably took first place, but the entire pro-government bloc was well ahead of the bloc of Zionist opposition parties. Vote counting is still ongoing; almost 85% has been tallied. Next is the opening of so-called double envelopes — counting the votes of Israelis who voted away from their place of residence, the lion’s share of whom are military reservists. Because of the security situation, there were more of them than ever in this election. Israeli soldiers (photo Getty Images) Also read: Israel saw record turnout in the elections since 1999 Their votes will most likely not go to parties representing Israel’s Arab minority, nor to the ultra-Orthodox parties exempt from military service. They will probably be distributed in varying proportions between Netanyahu’s party, his ultranationalist ally Ben Gvir, and the Zionist opposition. In any case, in Israel winning first place is only the beginning. The main task is to form a coalition of at least 61 deputies in the 120-seat parliament. Israeli society is highly fragmented and polarized, and the Knesset electoral threshold is fairly low, 3,25%. Therefore more than a dozen parties enter a relatively small parliament. Two parties representing Arab citizens of Israel (about 20% of all voters) are parties that the majority of other major political players are unwilling to ally with under any circumstances. Ahead lies an extremely tense coalition-building period and prime ministerial contest. Events could unfold under at least four scenarios, some with consequences beyond Israel’s domestic politics. Scenario No.1. Failure to agree, early elections According to the latest count, Netanyahu’s party and his allies have 54 seats in the next parliament. The Zionist opposition has 49 seats. The two Arab parties together receive 17 mandates. In another country those 19 mandates would be a golden share — if they went to Netanyahu or his opponents, a stable parliamentary majority would be formed. But in Israeli politics any cooperation format with Arab parties is often perceived by voters as betrayal (though one Arab party did join a coalition several years ago). In any case, Netanyahu will not join with the Arabs under any circumstance, because his allies are either ultra-religious Jewish parties or ultranationalists who openly call for discrimination against the Arab population, dream of expanding Israel’s territory at the expense of other Arab countries, etc. Indeed, the confrontational rhetoric of the pro-government bloc on a we-or-they principle has mobilized both Arabs and those most hostile to them to vote. The Zionist opposition is on average slightly less radical, but in the run-up to the vote several politicians in that camp also ruled out any cooperation with the Arab parties. This produces a stalemate where no majority of 61 votes can be formed. Clearly, Netanyahu will immediately be given the mandate to form a new coalition; he will have 28 days to do so, with an option to extend by another 14. If he fails, someone from the opposition may receive the mandate. If that person fails as well, Israel will have to go to another parliamentary election next spring. A few years ago, in 2019–2021, the country already underwent a series of elections — four votes in less than two calendar years. Scenario No.2. Netanyahu forms a coalition by buying defectors The practice of opposition deputies switching to the coalition individually or in groups (so-called “tushkization”) exists not only in Ukraine but also in Israel, though given extreme polarization it’s not very popular. Especially since the opposition’s rallying cry this election was “Out with Netanyahu!” A switch to a coalition led by Netanyahu would resemble the famous U-turn of Ukraine’s Socialist Party under Oleksandr Moroz, which abruptly left the Orange camp for Yanukovych’s camp in 2006. That move ended the socialists’ political career — they never returned to parliament. Similar consequences may await any defectors in Israel: they won’t lose their mandates, but their careers might be finished — their voters won’t forget such an act. However, if final results show Netanyahu lacks only a couple or a few mandates to reach a majority of 61 votes, attempts to recruit missing votes from the opposition camp will almost certainly occur. Scenario No.3. National unity government Despite the conflictual nature of Israeli politics, there are examples of broad coalitions where fierce opponents agree to avoid a political crisis or, especially, during an external threat to the country. Such scenarios were discussed before the elections as a possible alliance of Netanyahu’s Likud with the Yashar party of chief opposition figure Gadi Eizenkot. Leader of the main opposition party Yashar, Gadi Eizenkot (photo facebook.com) But as of now Likud and Yashar together have only 47 votes against the required 61. So they would need to bring in one or more additional parties. Given the sharply conflicting ideologies and fraught personal relationships in Israel’s political scene, such a coalition would be very unstable. Some of these contradictions could be eased if Israel again faced an extraordinary external threat or a large-scale war — the argument being the country’s survival is at stake and old grievances should be set aside temporarily. Even before the vote, media reported that Netanyahu allegedly intended to launch another major campaign against Iran for these reasons. But reportedly the General Staff leadership opposed it, as did Netanyahu’s main international ally — Donald Trump. Trump has US congressional elections in early November and needs a new Middle East war, with subsequent oil price increases, least of all. Strike on Tehran 1 March 2026 (photo Getty Images) Also read: US warned Gulf countries of possible new war with Iran after elections, - WSJ However, The Wall Street Journal reports that after the US congressional elections attention could return to the idea of a new campaign against Iran. Netanyahu himself said the night after the elections there is a unique opportunity to eliminate the Iranian threat once and for all. Scenario No.4. Cabinet coup Despite exceeding expectations, Netanyahu and his allies almost certainly will not be able to secure a majority of 61 votes in the Knesset on their own. Thus, parties opposed to him — both Zionists and Arabs — would hold a parliamentary majority. A possible variant is that with Arab parties’ backing the Zionist opposition first elects their speaker of the Knesset and then passes a law barring persons under corruption investigation from becoming ministers. That would effectively block Netanyahu from the premiership. Keeping power is crucial for the current prime minister because he faces several charges; if he loses the premiership he is very likely to face imprisonment. After removing his prospect of being prime minister, Israel could again move to early elections — no stable coalition could be formed. However, a barrier to this scenario is the same problem of Zionists agreeing with Arab parties, even if only for a few joint votes rather than a full coalition. Protests against Netanyahu in Israel (photo Getty Images) Also read: Netanyahu hinted at new war with Iran and criticized media for bad exit polls The pro-government bloc will certainly push a narrative of opposition betrayal, possibly even a coup. After all, the bloc led by him will have noticeably more mandates than the opposition. So if this crafty route deprives him of the premiership, it will look like a real conspiracy. Opposition leaders also understand that cooperating with Arab parties will reverberate badly for them in the next early elections. Thus the scenario is possible but unlikely. *** If the Israeli coalition in any way leads to a new escalation in the region, the consequences of the 27 October vote in Israel will be felt worldwide. A new conflict with Iran would not only raise global oil prices (and thus Russian revenues) but also worsen the shortage of Patriot packages, which the US and Israel will need to defend against Iranian strikes. That means even more problems for Ukraine in finding defenses against Russian ballistic attacks. In the worst-case scenario, voters in Rahat or ultra-Orthodox Jews in Bnei Brak will have direct consequences felt by residents thousands of kilometers away in Kyiv or Dnipro. Questions and answers (FAQ): – Who won the elections in Israel and is a coalition formed? – Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and its allies took the lead, but they cannot yet form a 61-seat majority. The final distribution depends on counting double envelopes (mostly military reservists). – Why are political camps in the Knesset at an impasse? – Neither the pro-government bloc nor the Zionist opposition reaches 61 votes without the Arab parties (17 mandates). But most key players categorically refuse such an alliance, seeing it as political betrayal. – What options does Netanyahu have? – Events could go four ways: new early elections in spring, buying defectors from the opposition, a fragile national unity government, or an opposition-led cabinet coup banning Netanyahu from the premiership. – How could Israel’s elections affect Ukraine? – If Netanyahu chooses escalation with Iran to stay in power, it would trigger higher oil prices and create an acute shortage of Patriot systems needed by the US and Israel to repel Iranian strikes.
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Тупик чи велика війна: 4 сценарії для Ізраїлю після виборів та наслідки для України". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: RBC-Ukraine.
