Massive Russian Attacks Have Worsened Energy System Prospects for Winter — Suspicions

Photo: Ukrenenergo

One of the damaged substations after shelling by Ukrenegro

Electricity sales abroad are shrinking, imports are gradually rising

As a result of Russian strikes on Ukraine's energy sector, electric power exports to EU countries and Moldova have nearly halved since mid-October. This is evidenced by data from the DiXi Group Analytical Center. More than half of export electricity goes to Hungary, Moldova's share also remains high — about 30 %. Meanwhile Ukraine has been completely cut off from trading with Slovakia for several weeks.

“The export/import situation has changed sharply. Excess remains only at night and on very sunny days,” says energy sector expert Viktor Widzihovsky.

Read also: The country has begun the heating season. The lights got worse.

Even after several waves of massive missile strikes and almost round-the-clock drone attacks — in general Ukraine's energy system does not experience a deficit. However, strikes on substations and power lines have significantly complicated power supply to certain regions. This is why some cities are already living under uninterruptible schedules, but exports continue.

“Demand for electricity falls during the day and at night. When we export it, it means there is a surplus at certain times of the day. Either we can or will have to shut down generation that would idle, which is economically inefficient. Or we can sell this electricity to our European partners if they need it at that moment,” explains Ukraine Facility Platform analyst Maria Tsaturyan.

Parallel to Russian strikes, import of electricity gradually increases. It is mainly about peak demand hours, i.e., morning and evening. The largest supplier of electricity to Ukraine remains Hungary: it accounts for more than 60 % of the total volume.

Photo: Telegram channel / Ukrenenergo

“We will live like this all winter, it's obvious. A strike — emergency restoration, planned restrictions if needed. And we move toward the next strike. The Russians have no means to strike to knock out the entire Ukrainian energy system at once. They would have done it long ago; they are doing their best,” says Kyiv Energy Research Center director Oleksandr Kharchenko.

The expert believes: even if the Russians manage to increase strike power by a third, this will not allow provoking a nationwide blackout. Such a situation in Ukraine happened only once — in autumn 2022 year, when the state faced massive missile strikes on energy. Then the Russians provoked a accident in the energy system, depriving its integrity.

The Kremlin changed tactics: strikes on generation did not stop, but increasingly drones and missiles attack the transmission system. Kyiv and Kyiv region feel this most. Consumers of the capital’s energy ring have been living on a schedule for several weeks.

Even before the full-scale war, Kyiv was energy-deficient. The city’s TPPs could cover up to 80 % of the city’s electricity consumption during the heating season. The rest of the electricity was transported from external sources. At the beginning of the year the Russians delivered devastating strikes on Kyiv's thermal power plants; since October these attacks are resuming.

“If previously the main focus of strikes was Kyiv and its key energy facilities, in the last week the geography of attacks has expanded significantly, including to western regions of Ukraine. Due to damage to energy infrastructure, emergency power outages and consumption restrictions began in these regions as well,” says former energy minister Olga Buslaevets.

Photo: State Emergency Service of Ukraine

As a result of a Russian attack on Lutsk, a fire and infrastructure destruction were recorded, 14 October 2026 year.

The intensity of Russian strikes on the infrastructure of the Right-bank of the country is increasing.

In the energy sector of the western part of the country, Russia increasingly hits drones point-by-point. For several weeks the border with Belarus has been in the crosshairs. The situation with power supply in Volyn and Rivne regions has greatly deteriorated. There were also strikes on Lviv region, and at the beginning of the week Bukovyna was under a new shelling. Due to damage to an energy facility, several areas of Chernivtsi and the region experienced power outages.

According to the government, last week the Russians attacked Ukraine’s energy and oil and gas sector 126 times. Most regions continue to live by schedules. The duration of blackouts in some areas reaches 10 hours per day.

In the past week the daily maximum electricity consumption rose by almost 5 %, which is a noticeable country-wide figure. The reason is a gradual drop in temperature. In most residential buildings the heating season has not yet begun, so consumers actively turn on electric heating.

“Given the consequences of Russian shelling and weather conditions, there remains a need to conserve electricity in the evening hours. Please limit use of powerful electrical appliances from 16:00 to 22:00,” says the Ukrenenergo press service.

The dispatch center of Ukrenenergo issues the order to apply outage schedules. At the same time, specialists take into account the current state and mode of the energy system, explained the State Energy Supervision. This body is supposed to control the fairness of the schedules for consumers.

Photo: Telegram channel / Ukrenenergo

However, given equipment damage and prompt response, actual blackout durations can change. Occasionally there are emergency power outages when the schedule does not operate. This information should be provided to consumers in real time by the distribution system operators (oblenergos).

“When formulating and applying hourly outage schedules, the technical capabilities of the electrical networks and the need to ensure power supply to critical infrastructure facilities are taken into account. At the same time, certain power lines can simultaneously feed both such facilities and other consumers. As a result, it is not technically possible to disconnect some consumers without interrupting power supply to critical infrastructure facilities,” explains the State Energy Supervision press service.

Eight nuclear reactor units of Ukraine are already in the energy system. One more is still undergoing planned repairs and will be put into operation in the coming days.

Generation at thermal power plants remains very low due to destruction; restoration of those facilities is still ongoing. The situation at hydroelectric plants is not better, as they operate in a limited production mode due to low water on the Dnieper and Dniester.

“The course of winter depends, first of all, on the weather. And secondly, on the success of shelling. And to a much lesser extent on our efforts. We will get through winter the way we have prepared so far, and radically changing this work is impossible. There is very little time left. I would talk about several components of preparation. And only for one can we note significant progress compared with previous years. This is protection of energy facilities,” says former Ukrenenergo head Volodymyr Kudrytsky.

Photo: Zoryana Stelmakh

Former head of Ukrenenergo Volodymyr Kudrytsky

The expert adds: over a year the amount of protected energy infrastructure has doubled. Previously it was mainly Ukrenenergo substations, but now equipment of other companies has also received physical protection. The works largely were carried out by the State Agency for Restoration, headed by former Zhytomyr mayor Serhiy Sukhomlin (in early September he left the post voluntarily).

Vladimir Kudrytsky assesses the pace of distributed (small-scale) gas generation negatively. According to him, in a year such installations built up to 300 MW, which is less than 5 % of last year’s deficit in electricity. At the same time, in an interview with LB.ua, the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Energy Andriy Gerus said that by the end of the year the state will be able to build up to 500 MW of gas generation.

Winter forecasts: outage schedules will continue

Why the Russians are trying to shut down Ukrainian NPPs — explanation is very simple. According to analysts from the Center for Economic and Political Studies (Razumkov Center), the capacity of atomic stations is 7.8 GW. This is more than half of the entire forecast winter generation balance.

“There could have been a little more. One block of the Khmelnytskyi NPP is operating at partial capacity. There is a problem with a turbine, about minus 250 MW. It still cannot be repaired,” says Razumkov Center energy programs director Volodymyr Omelchenko.

The expert explains: massive strikes in October significantly revised the forecasts for winter. Earlier there were three, but the base (most optimistic) scenario is no longer feasible. It predicted that in winter Ukraine would have available generation capacity at about 15.5 GW (excluding imports). That would have been enough for the country.

Now the state is moving toward two other winter forecasts. Both involve outage schedules, albeit of different duration.

Critical scenario: available generation capacity in winter falls to 11-12 GW. Schedules are retained for separate regions, but the situation changes depending on the power of Russian strikes.

Photo: Telegram channel / Ukrenenergo

IAEA mission monitors key Ukrenenergo substations that power Ukraine’s nuclear plants.

Scenario of crisis deepening: available generation capacity in winter falls to 8 GW. That is, a significant electricity deficit, equal to last year’s levels.

“Here the question of import capabilities is very serious, which we have up to 2.5 GW. But there’s a problem — price caps. Due to the crisis in the Middle East, electricity prices in neighboring markets can rise very high. So physical possibilities for imports exist, but not commercial ones. Because no one will buy at a loss. (Price cap: the maximum or minimum price at which trading can take place; in Ukraine this term is most often used in the electricity market. When the energy system experiences a sharp deficit of light, the market price at trades can reach very high values, but the price cap stops its rise at the government-set limit. At the same time this sometimes complicates electricity imports from Europe in critical moments if European price is higher than Ukrainian price cap. — Red.)” explains Volodymyr Omelchenko.

A mild winter could improve the energy situation. The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center stated that this heating season cannot rule out frosty days. However, overall temperature indicators are projected to be 1-2 degrees above climate norm.

Industrial demand reduction will not help households.

This winter the Russians aim not only to provoke a long-term deficit in frosts but also to cut off some regions from the energy system. Thus the Kremlin wants to create prerequisites for a nationwide blackout. This is stated in the Ukraine Facility Platform analytical report.

Considering strikes on industry, experts predict a further reduction in electricity consumption in Ukraine.

Photo: EPA/UPG

Generator on the street in Lviv.

“Record-low consumption creates an illusion of stability, while the deficit has not disappeared — it is merely latent. If the government, as usual, plans for ODP preparation and reserves ‘at the ready’ or ‘to meet current consumption,’ the first frost will change everything. After all, daytime industrial demand has fallen, and the winter peak is formed by households turning on electric heaters, so demand will rebound sharply right when the system is most vulnerable,” says the report.

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Industrial demand reduction also complicates balancing the energy system. The point is that electricity usage by business can be shifted in time. Rather than simply implementing schedules. This is one element of controlled load for the energy system. Its absence complicates Ukrenegro’s work.

Ukraine Facility Platform analysts also note a few more serious problems that may be triggered by decreased demand for electricity in industry.

Anomalously low consumption provokes a physical increase in network voltage. If this happens, energy professionals will have to systematically disconnect some power lines to prevent accidents.

Also, reduced electricity consumption by business will decrease electricity imports. Currently industry uses about 20 % less electricity.