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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
Against the backdrop of metallurgical plants shutting down and disruptions to grain shipments, the National Bank of Ukraine forecasts a GDP contraction.
Russia has intensified strikes on Ukraine’s industrial and energy facilities and on export routes. The attacks halted steelmaking at the mining and metallurgical group Metinvest’s facilities and complicated grain shipments, the Associated Press reported.
Missile strikes stopped steel production at Metinvest’s facilities, one of Ukraine’s largest mining and metallurgical producers. In 2025, Kametstal in Kamianske accounted for more than a quarter of Ukraine’s steel production.
Thousands of people worked at the plant. It produced steel and pig iron for construction in Ukraine and also supplied steel semi-finished products to Metinvest’s plant in Bulgaria. From there the products were shipped to the Bulgarian and other European markets. 5 in September, five ballistic missiles struck the complex. The plant’s shutdown affected construction, the mining sector, engineering, energy, and logistics.
Ukrainian Railways largely depends on revenue from transporting steel and other cargo. Kametstal’s CEO, Oleksandr Tretiakov, warned that companies dependent on the plant could cut jobs or go bankrupt.
He said that EU trade restrictions could complicate recovery by shrinking the market for Ukrainian steel. Tretiakov called the situation the worst since World War II. He recalled that steel once accounted for about 6% of Ukraine’s GDP.
“It used to. Now — zero,” he said.
Farmers are finding it increasingly difficult to cover costs
Grain, one of Ukraine’s main export commodities, meanwhile remains in the fields and is piling up in storage facilities across the country. Farmers are seeking routes with lower risk of air attacks and are waiting for prices to rise. Agriculture provides up to 60% of Ukraine’s foreign currency revenues. That makes the sector important to the country’s economy during the war.
Russian attacks on shipping in the Black Sea have sharply reduced vessel traffic through Ukraine’s deep-water ports. This has occurred at a time when farmers need funds to prepare for the next sowing season.
Lloyd’s List Intelligence, which analyzes shipping data, reported a sharp decline in Ukraine’s Black Sea trade due to attacks on ports, ships, and logistics infrastructure. In August, only 21 ship arrivals were recorded in the Black Sea ports — roughly 90% fewer than a year earlier. Insurance costs have skyrocketed, and the continual threat of Russian strikes is deterring shipowners. Dozens of seafarers have died in attacks this year.
“All our developments and all the innovations we have achieved will be wiped out by this situation, and we will have to start everything from scratch,” said Volodymyr Skavinsky, commercial director of Nibulon, one of Ukraine’s leading agricultural exporters.
Vessel traffic from smaller Ukrainian Danube ports to the Black Sea has increased despite the threat of Russian strikes. However, this route is more expensive. The Sulina Canal in the Danube delta is too shallow for the largest ships. Dozens of vessels often wait several days to enter or exit the river.
The route is also constrained by a record low water level in the Danube due to drought. According to Skavinsky, barges that previously carried 1500 tons now carry only 800–900 tons. For the same cargo volume nearly twice as many barges are needed, so costs rise. At the start of the year, transporting a ton of corn from central Ukraine to Spain cost up to 50 dollars. Now the price can reach 150 dollars per ton.
“It’s still risky, and you have no guarantees that your voyage will be successful,” Skavinsky added.
For HarvEast’s chief commercial officer, Olena Shelest, the most urgent task is finding buyers. HarvEast stores wheat in large grain sleeves and is waiting for market prices to stabilize. The grain needs to be sold by the end of the year to secure funds for the next sowing season.
If funds run out, current export difficulties could translate into production problems next year. Shelest said that last year a ton of corn cost on average 210–230 dollars. Now the price has fallen to about 130 dollars, further complicating farmers’ situation.
Previously about 60% of HarvEast’s sales went through Black Sea ports. Shelest estimates that the Danube ports of Reni and Izmail can handle only about 15–20% of Ukraine’s total export volume. Product can also be exported overland through Poland and other European countries, but those transports are more expensive. Under financial pressure, farmers are cutting spending on seeds and fertilizers. That could reduce future yields.
Ukraine lacks funds for planned expenditures
The intensification of Russian air attacks is increasingly affecting Ukraine’s economy. Russia is striking industrial and energy facilities, railways, logistics networks, and the routes the country uses to export goods. Almost daily strikes with ballistic missiles and attack drones interrupt production and raise transportation costs.
As a result, the government is finding it ever harder to cover expenditures. Revenues from metallurgy, agriculture, and other key sectors are declining. Losses in one sector affect others, and further U.S. aid remains uncertain. Ukraine spends about 40% of its gross domestic product on defense.
Roksolana Pidlasa, head of the Verkhovna Rada’s budget committee, said that Ukraine has faced its most acute cash shortfall since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Due to falling tax revenues, the state is struggling to cover planned expenditures even taking into account financing pledged by international partners.
The government is prioritizing funding for defense, public sector salaries, pensions, and social assistance. Construction, reconstruction, and some winter-preparation projects have been postponed. If Ukraine does not find a way to cover the deficit next year, the state will not be able to pay teachers’ and doctors’ salaries or maintain hospitals, Pidlasa warned.
Recall that amid the strikes on Metinvest’s plants, warnings were issued about the risk of prolonged restrictions on Ukrainian steel’s access to the EU market. Oleksandr Vodoviz, head of the group CEO’s office, said at the Kyiv International Economic Forum that the EU cut quotas on Ukrainian steel imports by more than 60%.
In addition, Metinvest proposed creating joint industrial clusters with the EU to rebuild Ukrainian metallurgy. Oleksandr Vodoviz presented this proposal at the Export Forum. He said such associations would help attract investment and technology and integrate Ukrainian plants into European supply chains.
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