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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
The population of the territory controlled by Ukraine has fallen from 37 to 27–28 million people. A close figure was previously cited by Ella Libanova, director of the Institute of Demography at the NAS of Ukraine: according to her estimate, by mid 2026 the population on the controlled territory was 28,5 million people. Another 3–5 million Ukrainians are under occupation, and more than 5 million have left abroad, The Economist reports.
Falling birth rates exacerbate the demographic crisis: if 2020 a year ago there were 1,2 children per woman, now it is 0,8–0,9. Fewer refugees are planning to return home. Now only 43% of Ukrainians abroad say so, whereas at the end of 2022 the figure was 74%.
According to Libanova, the new estimate is half a million less than the previous one, and the main reason is people going abroad for the winter rather than deaths. She is most afraid of a second, “male” wave of migration after the termination of martial law: if those returning from the front are not offered decent work and pay, families may decide to reunite abroad.
So far, even those who are considering returning are not rushing. The Ukrainian consultation center Unity Hub Berlin received about 60 inquiries about returning in six months. Only three of them are from men of conscription age. Most applicants see returning only after active combat ends.
About how to measure the lost future of Ukraine due to the war, in the ZN.UA article “The bill for the future: what the war has taken from Ukraine — and how it can be measured” writes Igor Mantzurov, director of the Institute of Systemic Statistical Studies, corresponding member of the NAS of Ukraine.
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