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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
⁉️ Aren’t they pre-setting a new “normal” fuel price for Ukrainians?
Today on RanokLIVE fuel expert and founder of the Prime group of companies Dmytro Lioushkin predicted a significant fuel price increase in Ukraine. According to him, by February diesel could cost 115–120 UAH per liter, and gasoline about 10 hryvnias cheaper.
Moreover, 115–120 UAH is called by Lioushkin still a rather optimistic forecast. In a worse scenario he allows for a diesel price of 140–145 UAH per liter. Explaining his calculations, the expert referred, among other things, to European prices.
“120 UAH — well, that’s 2,4 euros. That’s the price that is currently the lowest in Europe,” Lioushkin said, adding that “in places” diesel in Europe already costs €2,8–2,9.
After such an explanation the consumer forms a fairly simple picture: fuel is already much more expensive in Europe, it’s still cheaper in Ukraine, so further growth to 115–120 UAH is practically inevitable.
However, the problem is that REAL EUROPEAN PRICES LOOK DIFFERENT.
According to the latest data from the European Commission, €2,4 per liter is not at all the lowest diesel price in Europe. In many EU countries the average retail price is noticeably lower.
For example, in Poland diesel cost about €2 per liter — roughly 103 UAH at the current exchange rate. In Spain — about €1,83, in Slovenia and Bulgaria — approximately €1,85–1,86, and in Cyprus and Hungary — about €1,92.
Yes, diesel at €2,4 in Europe does exist; such prices can be found at some expensive gas stations. But a peak price at an individual station is not the average price in a country and certainly not the lower bound for all of Europe.
And here arises the question: ARE UKRAINIANS BEING PREPARED IN ADVANCE FOR A NEW “NORMAL” FUEL PRICE?
When a representative of the fuel business forecasts diesel at 115–120 UAH, calls it an optimistic scenario, simultaneously talks about possible 140–145 UAH and explains that €2,4 is allegedly the lowest price in Europe, then 115–120 UAH can psychologically already be perceived not as a sharp price jump but almost as an acceptable scenario.
Thus the reasonable question arises: is this simply an unfortunate comparison by the expert or a way to accustom the public in advance to the idea that 115–120 UAH per liter is still a “normal” price?
Especially since the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine has already dealt with pricing on the Ukrainian fuel market this year. In March the AMCU opened a case on signs of possible anti-competitive coordinated actions by participants in the retail market of light petroleum products. Later the Committee recommended that the largest gas station networks set prices based on objective economic factors.
The forecast of diesel at 115–120 UAH in February cannot be confirmed or refuted today — the future price will depend on many factors.
But the argument that €2,4 is already the lowest diesel price in Europe does not hold up to fact-checking.
So the question remains: aren’t Ukrainians already being psychologically prepared for much higher prices at gas stations, presenting them as an inevitable “catching up with Europe,” even though Europe itself shows a much broader and far less unambiguous price picture?
📌 Well, I think everyone understood! They want to “pluck the geese so they don’t squawk”…
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