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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
November 2026: possible collapse
“The black swan does not arrive on schedule. But you should prepare for it before it lands on the roof.”
The market has never stood so high on such a shaky floor.
Indexes at historic highs, AI companies trading at 55 times annual revenue, and beneath it almost every supporting beam is cracking. November 2026 of the year could be the month when everyone notices at once.
First trigger: the US midterm elections on 3 November. Republicans are losing ground. Expensive diesel, a war with Iran, migration policy that divides the country. Before the elections a market drop cannot be allowed, so it’s being held up. After the elections there will be no point in holding it regardless of the outcome. And if Democrats start to win, the White House will not care what happens to the indexes.
Second: debt. As of 7 October, the ten-year Treasury yield reached 5,36%, and the thirty-year reached 5,73%. It hasn’t been higher since 2002, when the market was still cleaning up the dot-com wreckage. Everyone remembers how that ended. US national debt has long been in the stratosphere, and servicing it gets more expensive every month.
Third: oil. Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, Brent over one hundred dollars. All of this hits the wallet every day of the very voter who will go to vote.
And two cherries on top. 27 and 28 October the Fed meets, having already raised rates in September. Then the Anthropic IPO, where investors expect a valuation of 2 trillion dollars — the largest offering in history. To buy the new, the market will have to sell the old. Money will flow there, and out of other assets.
Now Europe. France’s debt, the eurozone’s second economy, has reached 119% of GDP — not seen since 1946. Greece, in 2009, on the eve of its collapse, stood roughly the same. The spread between French and German bonds is the widest since the debt crisis of 2012. Meanwhile costs only rise, and a political crisis is brewing: the AfD is rising in Germany, and in France Le Pen is heading into the 2027 election. Scotland has started talking again about leaving the United Kingdom.
And Europe is already burning. On Saturday, 17 October, a protest against rising costs in Milan turned into street warfare. About five thousand people marched “Italia in Piazza,” and it ended with stones and firecrackers thrown at police, burning barricades in Piazza del Duomo, and smashed shop windows from Galleria Vittorio Emanuele to San Babila. About sixty detained, half of them minors, twenty-five injured. In Bologna there were water cannons and dozens injured; in Turin arrests. Unions have already called a nationwide strike for 20 November. The same day in Paris: yellow vests, university and high-school students marched together against rising costs, and there were the same scenes. Tonight Macron addresses the nation. Italian media write plainly: the fire has spread from France. The next weekend will show whether this is a flare-up or the start of a nationwide blaze.
And Japan is raising rates and bringing home the money it has given away to the world for decades at near-zero rates.
The question is not whether the dominoes will fall. The question is which will fall first.
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