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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
🇺🇸 There are 10 days left until the U.S. congressional elections. I looked at Nate Silver's latest numbers, and they are bad for Trump.
📉 Trump's rating has fallen to a historic low. The net approval rating (those who approve minus those who disapprove) is now -24,3. That's 2 points worse than a week ago. According to the New York Times, only Harry Truman had a worse rating before midterm elections since 1946.
Fresh polls:
▪️ NYT/Siena: -26
▪️ CNN/SSRS: -35
▪️ Reuters/Ipsos: -35
🗳️ Democrats lead by 9 points. On the question “which party will you vote for in the congressional elections,” Democrats have +9,1. That's almost their record for the whole cycle (+9,2). If you count only those who say they will definitely turn out, the margin is even larger: +9,6.
🏛️ Senate. Democrats are currently leading in enough states to give them a 54 majority by 46. Silver's model estimates their chances of taking the Senate at about 75%. Surprise: even in traditionally Republican Texas, Democrat Talariqo is ahead of Paxton by 2,4 points.
⚔️ Separately on the war with Iran. Support has risen slightly: from 32% at the start of the month to 36%. Against 55%. According to the Silver Bulletin, the administration is postponing any major moves until after the elections because it is trying to bring down gasoline and diesel prices.
⚠️ The main uncertainty now is not new polls but potential error in the polls themselves. Everyone remembers 2016, 2020 and 2024 years. So 75% does not yet mean victory.
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