Back
Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
❗️ Russia is overperforming missile production plans and shifting to faster strike drones - GUR does not expect pauses in shelling
Russia continues to ramp up production of missile armaments and increase the intensity of strikes against Ukraine. For the main types of missiles, the Russian military-industrial complex monthly fulfills production plans by approximately 110–120%, so long pauses between mass attacks should not be expected in the near future. This was said by Deputy Chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.
According to GUR, the trend of increasing missile use has been clearly visible since spring. In April Russia used 61 ballistic missile, in May - 107, and in June - already 134. If previously there could be intervals of about ten days between large attacks, later they shortened to a week, and now strikes occur even more frequently.
In July Russia used 153 cruise and 198 ballistic and hypersonic missiles against Ukraine. At the same time, production continued at a high pace. In particular, in July Russian enterprises manufactured 87 Kh-101 missiles instead of the planned 72, fulfilling the plan by approximately 140%. The plan for producing Kalibrs was fulfilled by 111%, and cruise missiles Kh-35 by about 200%.
A similar situation applies to ballistic missiles for the Iskander-M system. With a monthly plan of 60 units, in July Russia produced 65 9M723 missiles. As of 5 August, according to Ukrainian intelligence estimates, the Russians had about 130 such missiles left designated for use against Ukraine.
Additionally, according to GUR, Russian stocks hold about 400 missiles for S-400 systems and about 100 North Korean ballistic missiles KN-24. The latter pose a particular danger due to low accuracy: according to Skibitskyi, their deviation from the intended target can reach about 15 kilometers.
Separately, Russia accelerated production of Zircon missiles and modernized Onyx missiles. The annual plan for these two types of armament was completed by the Russian military-industrial complex in just seven months, producing 33 and 60 missiles, respectively. At the same time, resources are being redistributed among various missile programs. According to GUR, Russia suspended production of Kinzhal missiles and Kh-32 missiles. Rocket fuel that could have been used for Kinzhal missiles is being redirected to the production of other ballistic missiles. Serial production of Kh-32 was also put on pause.
Against this backdrop, GUR does not expect Russia to take long pauses in missile attacks. According to Skibitskyi, the Russians may reduce the number of missiles directed at a single target at one time and switch between different groups of objects, but the overall intensity of strikes will largely depend on the pace of weapons production.
At the same time, Moscow is restructuring the production of strike unmanned aerial vehicles, betting on significantly faster platforms. The Russian military-industrial complex plan for August provides for the manufacture of about 11 thousand strike UAVs of various types, including Geran, Gerbera and Harpy. Special emphasis is placed on turbojet Geran-4 and Geran-5. According to intelligence, it was precisely the retooling of production capacities that became one reason for the certain decline in drone output and intensity of drone use in July.
However, this may be a temporary phenomenon. Skibitskyi noted that during one of the recent attacks about half of the drones used were already turbojet Gerans. Among the priority targets of Russian strikes, intelligence names enterprises of the Ukrainian defense-industrial complex, rail infrastructure, ports, shipping and other logistics facilities, as well as energy infrastructure on which their operations depend.
📌 In my subjective opinion, most Ukrainians saw this as a statement: while various “Shtilermans, Fedorovs” and the like talk about “how we will be in the future”… the enemy quietly and without pomp is increasing the pace of armaments to destroy Ukraine and Ukrainians…
