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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
Ukrainians are leaving the country en masse (for vacations)
The media are circulating a figure that more than 244 thousand citizens left Ukraine in the first six months of 2026 and did not return. According to data cited by Opendatabot, in January–June Ukrainians left the country 7,13 million times and returned 6,89 million times.
However, an important context is that almost this entire gap formed in June. June marks the start of the vacation season, school breaks, and summer travel. In total during the month Ukrainians crossed the border 3,17 million times — 36% more than the average monthly figure.
So it is premature to speak of a new wave of mass emigration based on these data.
Border crossings are highly seasonal: in summer and during winter holidays departures traditionally increase, and after the vacation and holiday season ends part of this gap is compensated by returns.
“Yes, Ukrainians continue to go abroad, and in the context of a continuing full-scale war this is to be expected. By our estimates, in 2025 the net outflow was about 300 thousand people. At the same time, this is significantly less than in 2024, when about 450 thousand people left.
But it is worth being cautious about assessing migration trends based on data from one or a few months, since border crossings are highly seasonal. In summer and during winter holidays departures traditionally increase because of vacations and travel, and after the season we see a wave of returns.
Therefore it is important to look not only at the number of people who crossed the border outbound in a given period, but at the long-term balance of departures and returns. The overall problem of population outflow remains serious, but for now the data more likely indicate a continuation of the existing trend rather than a new wave of mass departure,” explains CES senior economist Iryna Ippolitova.
Recall that according to the latest CES estimate as of January 2026, 5,6 million Ukrainian refugees were abroad.
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