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The CBAM environmental levy could cost Ukraine $7 billion in exports: must win a postponement from the EU
According to updated estimates from GMK Center, the European environmental levy really is a full-fledged trade barrier. We must urgently negotiate a postponement, because the consequences will be extremely serious.
▪️ GDP loss: $372 million in 2026 and up to $1,754 billion in 2030.
▪️ Export loss: $1,431 billion in 2026 and up to $7,248 billion by 2030.
▪️ Tax loss: about $1,348 billion by 2030.
▪️ Potentially lost investments: another roughly $1,022 billion.
▪️ For metallurgy: total losses through 2030 are estimated at $1,6 billion.
▪️ Already in the first year of full CBAM implementation, exports of pig iron and steel may require about $311 million in payments.
The problem is not only the carbon payment itself, but also the consequences it brings — loss of competitiveness, exports, and investment.
We urgently need to negotiate a postponement with the EU. At the same time, we must develop a mechanism whereby CBAM funds work toward decarbonizing Ukrainian enterprises, rather than simply extracting resources from industry.
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