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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
The suspension of the sea corridor this year created for Ukrainian metallurgy a threat more serious than at the beginning of the full-scale war. Without urgent decisions on restoring sea exports, access to the EU market, and reducing domestic pressure, a portion of enterprises may go idle, and losses to the industry could become irreversible. This was stated by GMK Center chief analyst Andriy Tarasenko.
According to him, the sea corridor remains the basis for exporting metallurgical and iron ore products. In the first half of 2026 year, about 50% of Ukrainian steel exports, 95% of pig iron exports, and half of iron ore shipments passed through it.
“The shutdown of the sea disrupts the main sales support almost instantly. In 2026 year, the situation is more challenging than in 2022, because alternative markets and routes are also narrowed,” Tarasenko explained.
In 2022 year, the European Union offset the loss of sea logistics by lifting part of the trade barriers for Ukrainian exports. Conversely, in 2026 year, new import quotas came into force, which, according to GMK Center, could reduce Ukrainian steel deliveries to the EU by 60% compared with 2025 year.
Additionally, the industry loses the opportunity to export steel semi-finished products by sea. In the first half of the year, their shipments amounted to about 520 thousand tons. Transporting such products by land routes is economically unprofitable due to low margins and costs associated with CBAM.
The iron ore sector could incur the greatest losses. Due to lower world iron ore prices, export through European ports, which helped the industry in 2022 year, is now unprofitable.
“Some iron ore capacities will probably have to be put into idle. Production in the sector may fall by 35% compared with the level of the first half of 2026 year,” the analyst forecast.
The closure of the sea route also complicates raw material imports. After the loss of the Pokrovsk coal group, Ukrainian plants depend on coal supplies from the United States and Australia. Transporting it through European ports and railways can be twice as expensive and raise the final cost by about 15%.
According to GMK Center estimates, direct metallurgy losses due to reduced exports could amount to $150–200 million per month. This figure does not include the rise in import raw materials, increased operating costs, and the risk of a complete shutdown of some productions.
Problems could also arise on the domestic market. Through Ukrainian ports, Ukraine imported types of rolled products that are not produced domestically. In case of a prolonged corridor shutdown, such products could become more expensive or unavailable.
Tarasenko emphasized that in addition to sea logistics issues, CBAM, EU quotas, higher railway tariffs, and higher electricity transmission costs have been added. According to him, without rapid government intervention, the crisis could lead to a long-term reduction in production and loss of industrial capacities.
“Urgent decisions are needed to unblock sea exports, review EU trade restrictions, and reduce domestic tariff burdens. Otherwise, the consequences for enterprises could become irreversible,” summed up GMK Center chief analyst.
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