Export Under Threat: What Will Happen to Metallurgy After the Shutdown of the Maritime Corridor

The shutdown of the Ukrainian maritime corridor could deal a powerful blow to the metallurgical industry and reduce production by nearly a third. Experts warn that monthly losses from export reductions may reach 200 million dollars.

What losses could Ukrainian metallurgy incur

Because of the shutdown of the Ukrainian maritime corridor, domestic metallurgical enterprises may be forced to idle part of their production capacity and reduce output by about a third. This forecast was voiced by GMK Center chief analyst Andriy Tarasenko.

According to his estimates, direct losses from export reductions alone will amount to 150 – 200 million dollars per month. At the same time, this figure does not account for indirect losses, including higher logistics costs, more expensive imported raw materials, increased production costs, and the risk of a complete shutdown of individual enterprises.

In the first half of 2026 year, maritime routes accounted for 50% of Ukraine's steel exports, 95% of pig iron exports, and 50% of iron ore exports. That is why stopping the maritime corridor could have a critical impact on the entire mining and metallurgical sector.

Experts note that the situation resembles an export blockade in 2022 year, but current conditions are more complex due to new economic and trade restrictions.

Fuel

Average prices at the Amic Energy gas stations network as of

Why the current crisis may prove more serious than the events of 2022 year

One of the main challenges has been the new import quotas of the European Union, which began to apply in July. They could reduce Ukrainian steel exports to EU countries by about 60% compared with the level of 2025 year, or by 1,3 – 1,5 million tons.

An additional problem is semi-finished products, which account for almost half of maritime steel exports. Due to low profitability and costs associated with the carbon-adjustment mechanism for imports (CBAM), redirecting these shipments to land routes is practically impossible. This could lead to an additional reduction in production by about 1 million tons per year.

The situation is further complicated by the decline in world iron ore prices, which makes exports through European ports economically unprofitable. Analysts forecast that production in the iron ore sector could fall by about 35% compared with the first half of 2026 year.

In addition to exports, problems will also arise with imports. After the loss of the Pokrovsk coal group, Ukrainian metallurgical enterprises depend on coal supplies from the United States and Australia, which were mostly transported by sea. If redirected through European ports and railways, logistics costs could almost double, increasing coal prices by about 15%.

Experts also warn about risks for the domestic market. Because maritime shipments have stopped, certain types of metal products that Ukraine imported, including rolled products with coatings, thick sheet, and shaped rolled products, may become more expensive or even temporarily unavailable. Analysts believe that the sum of these factors makes the current crisis one of the most serious challenges for Ukrainian metallurgy in recent years.

By the way, global wheat prices continue to rise amid the worsening situation in the Black Sea region and deteriorating harvest forecasts in key producing countries. Additional pressure on the market comes from reductions in Russian exports and adverse weather conditions in Europe and the United States.