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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
The shutdown of the Ukrainian maritime corridor could deal a powerful blow to the metallurgical industry and cut production by almost a third. Experts warn that monthly losses from reduced exports could reach 200 million dollars.
What losses Ukrainian metallurgy might incur
Because of the shutdown of the Ukrainian maritime corridor, domestic metallurgical enterprises may be forced to mothball part of their production capacity and reduce output by about a third. This forecast was voiced by GMK Center's chief analyst Andriy Tarasenko.
According to his estimates, only direct losses from export reductions would amount to 150 – 200 million dollars per month. At the same time, this figure does not account for indirect losses, including higher logistics costs, more expensive imported raw materials, increased production costs, and the risk of a complete shutdown of some enterprises.
In the first half of 2026 year, sea routes accounted for 50% of Ukrainian steel exports, 95% of pig iron exports, and 50% of iron ore exports. Therefore, halting the maritime corridor could have a critical impact on the entire mining-and-metallurgical sector.
Experts note that the situation resembles an export blockade in 2022 year, but current conditions are more complex due to new economic and trade restrictions.
Fuel
Average prices at the Amic Energy network as of
Why today’s crisis may prove more serious than the events of 2022 year
One of the main challenges was the European Union's new import quotas, which began in July. They could reduce Ukrainian steel exports to EU countries by about 60% compared with the level of 2025 year, or by 1,3 – 1,5 million tons.
An additional problem is semi-finished products, which make up almost half of maritime steel exports. Due to low profitability and costs associated with the import carbon-adjustment mechanism (CBAM), redirecting these supplies to overland routes is practically impossible. This could lead to an additional reduction in production of about 1 million tons per year.
The situation is further complicated by the drop in global iron ore prices, making exports through European ports economically unprofitable. Analysts forecast that production in the iron ore sector could fall by about 35% compared with the first half of 2026 year.
In addition to exports, problems will arise with imports. After the loss of the Pokrovsk coal group, Ukrainian metallurgical enterprises depend on coal supplies from the United States and Australia, which were mainly delivered by sea. If rerouted through European ports and rail, logistics costs could almost double, increasing the cost of coal by about 15%.
Experts also warn of risks for the domestic market. Due to the suspension of maritime shipments, certain types of metal products that Ukraine imported—such as coated rolled products, heavy plate, and shaped steel products—may become more expensive or temporarily disappear. Analysts believe that the combination of these factors makes this crisis one of the most serious challenges for Ukrainian metallurgy in recent years.
By the way, global wheat prices continue to rise amid the intensification of the situation in the Black Sea region and worsening harvest forecasts in key producing countries. Additional pressure on the market comes from reductions in Russian exports and unfavorable weather conditions in Europe and the United States.
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Експорт під загрозою: що станеться з металургією після зупинки морського коридору". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: Channel 24.
