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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
Russia is increasing its ballistic strikes against Ukraine and may more actively employ upgraded missiles from North Korea. They are launched from mobile launchers that rapidly change positions, while stocks of anti-missile interceptors to counter such targets remain insufficient.
Former SBU employee Ivan Stupak said on air on 24 Channel that the Ukrainian command already has developments and scenarios to counter this threat, but their details are strictly classified. He explained what could prevent destroying launchers before the missiles are launched and why this issue is one of the most critical for Ukraine right now.
Ukraine already has counter-ballistic defense scenarios
The threat of ballistic missiles is among the main priorities for Ukraine's military leadership. The political leadership receives daily information about ways to counter them, since further massive strikes could inflict serious damage not only on military targets but also on the country's economy.
This topic is currently the most problematic for Ukraine. Even on the front line, the situation, in my view, is somewhat more stable than with ballistic strikes,
– emphasised Stupak.
Ukrainian forces have already developed possible scenarios and methodologies to counter such missiles, but all details are classified. It is also unknown whether this concerns only domestic solutions or a combination of Ukrainian and Western technologies. The main constraint remains the amount of available means.
There are developments, there is a methodology. A mobile launch unit travels to a position and is deployed in about 10 minutes. Our military says: we know how and where to act, the main thing is that there are enough resources,
– said the former SBU employee.
Rapid movement of launchers significantly complicates their detection and destruction before launch. At the same time, developments exist, and work on them is progressing very actively, so the result will depend on how quickly Ukraine's Defense Forces receive the necessary technologies and strike means.
Russia may launch more than a hundred ballistic missiles per month
Relying on rapid depletion of Russian stocks is not advisable. Moscow has preserved production capacities and continues to replenish arsenals, in particular through cooperation with North Korea. In July Russia launched about 380 rockets of various types at Ukraine, of which about 126 were ballistic.
We already heard in March 2022 that Russia would have missiles for only two or three massive strikes. But they have production capacities, missiles continue to be manufactured,
– noted the former SBU employee.
For now, it is unclear whether this level of ballistic missiles will be a new permanent level or a peak. The scale of Russian production can vary depending on component supplies and other factors, exact information about which Ukrainian and Western intelligence have.
I cannot say whether 126 ballistic missiles – is this the minimum threshold from which the quantity will only grow, or a median indicator, or the maximum after which it will decline,
– explained Stupak.
Only Ukrainian and Western intelligence can assess the exact reasons for fluctuations in production rates. However, it is already clear that Russia not only preserves its own capabilities but also replenishes its missile arsenal with the help of North Korea.
Ukraine cannot open another front
North Korea has effectively become a participant in the war, supplying Russia with missiles and other means of damage. At the same time, Ukraine cannot directly influence North Korean military targets, and its nuclear status makes any escalation even more dangerous.
Unfortunately, we cannot reach North Korea. We understand that it has nuclear weapons, and it is better for us not to open another front, as with Iran,
– explained Stupak.
The focus must be on those systems that Russia has already deployed or plans to deploy on its territory. Launchers and units employing North Korean ballistic missiles against Ukraine are legitimate military targets, but destroying them requires precise intelligence and a sufficient number of long-range strike assets.
At the same time, public warnings from Ukrainian diplomacy should deter Pyongyang from further deploying its systems and deeper involvement in the war.
Stupak explained how Ukraine can counter ballistic missiles: watch the video
Document: PDF proof of the original version of the news item "Найбільша проблема, – ексспівробітник СБУ розкрив, як СОУ можуть боротись з балістикою КНДР". It records the publication content at the moment of the first scan, the preservation date and the source: Channel 24.
