Catastrophe on the Danube: What the River’s Critical Shallowing Means for Ukraine’s Economy

Because Russia has blockaded Odesa region’s Black Sea ports, navigation on the Danube has once again gone from a backup route to one of the key channels supporting the Ukrainian economy. It is thanks to Danube ports and other logistical routes that authorities are trying, at least partially, to compensate for the loss of maritime exports.

However, it seems nature itself is working against Ukraine: this year the Danube’s water level is at critically low marks. That harms navigation and creates challenges for neighboring countries’ energy sectors.

24 The Channel investigated what the Danube’s shallowing means for Ukraine’s strategic economic sectors and whether river logistics can save exports in a critical moment.

Consequences of the Danube’s shallowing for Ukrainian exports

The second-largest river in Europe has catastrophically shallowed. Water levels have fallen to marks not seen on the Danube for decades. In Romania, at the beginning of August they recorded approaches to a historic minimum 1985 year, while in Serbia officials reported reaching locally the lowest levels since 1909 year.

The Danube is an important European transport artery because its basin unites 19 countries. For Ukraine, the river’s importance is heightened because, given Russia’s blockade of Black Sea ports, it is one of the few alternatives for export logistics. Through Ukraine’s Danube ports, agricultural and metallurgical products are exported abroad, and fuel is imported.

As UKAB analyst Maksym Hopka told 24 Channel, Danube ports are an important reserve route that helps avoid a complete halt to agricultural exports. However, they cannot become a full substitute for Greater Odesa.

Maksym Hopka

Analyst at the Ukrainian Club of Agribusiness

Their main advantage is the ability to deliver cargo by barges to Constanța or to load it onto small seagoing vessels. The Danube can mitigate the effects of the blockade but cannot replace deep-water Black Sea ports.

Danube ports played a significant role in the early years of the full-scale war, when logistics on this route had to be urgently expanded under Russia’s Black Sea blockade. By the end of 2022 year, about 16,5 million tons of cargo passed through Reni, Izmail, and Ust-Dunaisk (for comparison: in 2021 – 5,5 million tons). In 2023 year, Danube ports’ cargo turnover reached a record 29 million tons.

Fuel

Average prices at Amic Energy gas stations as of

Maksym Hopka notes that in August 2023 year about 64,5% of all alternative exports passed through Ukraine’s Danube ports — namely 2,4 million tons of agricultural products. Overall, without Greater Odesa, that reached a record 3,7 million tons in a month.

Ukraine’s Danube ports / 24 Channel

In subsequent years, cargo handling volumes through Danube ports declined and by the end of 2025 fell to about 9 million tons, since more efficient and profitable maritime logistics became available.

In the first half of 2026 year all alternative routes (Danube, rail, road) provided export of 2,7 million tons of agricultural products, while Greater Odesa ports handled 24,6 million tons.

Thus, the throughput capacity of Danube ports has long not been used to full potential, and in low-water conditions it becomes physically impossible to scale it up quickly. The UKAB analyst explains that the key issue is draft limitations for vessels across the entire lower Danube.

At the end of July, discharge at the Danube’s entry to Romania was 64–65% below the July average: 1 650–1 700 cubic meters per second versus 4 700–4 750 cubic meters per second. Actual depths in certain critical sections fell to 1,5–1,7 meters.

Because of this, barges lose roughly 30–60% of their normal cargo capacity. The same volume of grain must be distributed among a larger number of vessels and voyages, turnaround time for the fleet increases, and queues form,

– notes Maksym Hopka.

Another reaction to the logistical difficulties has been rising costs. In July alternative routes required about 40 dollars per ton in additional expenses compared with normal exports through deep-water Black Sea ports. At the beginning of August, the analyst estimates this figure should be updated to 45–50 dollars per ton.

As Maksym Hopka explains, the price increase is caused by several factors at once:

increased demand for barges after seagoing vessels stopped calling at Greater Odesa;

war-related risks;

underloading of the fleet due to low water.

"For crops with relatively low prices — primarily corn and feed wheat — alternative logistics can absorb a significant portion or even all of the producer’s margin," the analyst concludes.

As a result, agribusiness, especially small producers, has come under significant pressure: reduced shipments led to falling domestic prices for agricultural products, while export logistics became more expensive. All this is happening during harvest season, against the backdrop of relatively high carryover stocks from last year that need to be stored. On the horizon is the autumn sowing campaign, which requires funds to purchase inputs.

To mitigate the effects of the maritime export blockade, the government announced a number of measures to support farmers. The first are planned changes to the “Affordable Loans 5 – 7 – 9%” program.

As Prime Minister of Ukraine Serhiy Koretskyi reported on 6 August, agribusiness will be able to obtain preferential loans to replenish working capital. It is expected this will help prepare for field work, preserve production, and ensure stable export of products.

The state will compensate the difference in interest rates. The total size of credit opportunities under the preferential loans program is up to 80 billion hryvnias.

However, even under optimistic scenarios, authorities acknowledge that Danube, rail, and road routes can provide at most 45–50% of annual agricultural exports.

Ukraine’s metallurgy also faces significant problems due to the blockade of Black Sea ports. According to GMK Center, the 2026 year crisis for the industry is more destructive than in 2022 year. There are no alternatives to deep-water ports, because the overall situation is far less favorable than at the start of the full-scale war.

The maritime corridor remains the main logistical channel for exports from Ukraine’s metallurgy and mining sectors: in the first half of 2026 year it accounted for 50% of steel exports, 95% of pig iron exports and 50% of iron ore exports.

As the president of the association of enterprises “Ukrmetalurhprom,” Oleksandr Kalenkov, told EP, access to the sea is a key survival factor for the metallurgical industry, and the current export problem is bigger than in 2022–2023 years, when product prices were higher.

In the first year of the full-scale war some cargoes were redirected to Danube ports, but now the river has shallowed, so that route cannot help the industry. Moreover, since then iron ore prices have fallen from 120 dollars per ton to less than 98 dollars.

Export disruptions have already led to initial production shutdowns:

the Ferrexpo group temporarily halted production at the Poltava Mining and Processing Plant;

the same happened at the Southern Mining and Processing Plant owned by the Metinvest group.

According to Ukrmetalurhprom’s president, if the export situation does not improve within a few weeks, enterprises will close or move into downtime.

GMK Center’s chief analyst Andriy Tarasenko forecasts that due to the closure of the maritime corridor, direct losses for Ukrainian metallurgy will amount to 150–200 million dollars per month.

How does the Danube’s low water affect the energy sector?

The Danube is no less important for energy security. In addition to hydropower, its waters provide cooling for nuclear reactors in Hungary and Romania. Falling water levels have forced those countries to partially shut down nuclear power units. This led to a capacity deficit and the need to ramp up electricity imports.

In Hungary, at the only Paks nuclear power plant — which covers nearly half the country’s needs — only one of four reactors is operating. Electricity production had to be reduced due to the Danube’s critical drop. As Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar stated, the plant was “a few millimeters” away from a complete shutdown.

In recent days the shallowing situation improved slightly and the water level rose by 9 centimeters compared with the minimum recorded on Sunday. However, the need to cut consumption remains, so large industrial consumers and government institutions are still urged to use less electricity.

The Danube in Hungary. Photo – Kudettné Horvát Elizabethnek from social networks

The situation in Romania is similar: the two reactors of its only nuclear power plant, Cernavodă, are cooled by Danube water. The plant accounts for one-fifth of the country’s electricity production.

At the end of July one of the reactors had to be shut down, and in August emergency measures were taken to support the operating unit. In particular, they decided to redirect larger volumes of water for the plant by blasting rock on the Danube to change the flow direction.

The next step was the controlled sinking of four barges filled with stones to redirect flow and raise water levels in the area of the nuclear plant. According to calculations, this should support the plant’s operation while awaiting a rise in river levels after rains.

The Romanian power system’s situation is currently difficult because the shutdown of a nuclear unit created a deficit. To cover it, Romania is importing electricity from Ukraine, Nuclearelectrica reported on 3 August.

As energy expert Volodymyr Omelchenko told 24 Channel, export is possible thanks to a large number of solar power plants that produce more electricity during the day than is needed for domestic consumption. To avoid curtailing generation from solar and other renewables, the excess is sold abroad.

Volodymyr Omelchenko

Director of Energy Programs at the Razumkov Centre

We export electricity to Romania and Hungary today, although not in very large volumes. But we export during the day when there is a lot of sun and relatively low consumption. In the evening, when consumption rises, solar plants do not operate as effectively, so it is profitable for us to import electricity. So there is this commercial, market option.

According to ExPro data, in July Ukraine increased electricity exports by 48% — to 232,5 thousand megawatt-hours. At the same time, electricity imports decreased by 40% — to 175 thousand megawatt-hours.

Thus, for the first time in a long time Ukraine sold more electricity abroad than it bought. 48% of shipments went to Hungary. Exports were also made to Romania, Slovakia, Moldova, and Poland.

At the same time Ukraine’s need to import electricity has not disappeared, although it has decreased. Expert Volodymyr Omelchenko notes that the situation with nuclear unit shutdowns and capacity deficits in neighboring countries also affects Ukraine. Because reduced generation leads to higher market prices, imports cost us more.

What about fuel import logistics to Ukraine?

Danube shallowing also affects fuel logistics. Low water levels impose constraints on barge transport of petroleum products at a time when Black Sea ports cannot be used.

Fuel market expert Serhiy Kuyun told 24 Channel that currently, due to low water, barges cannot take full loads of fuel. This exacerbates an already strained supply situation.

Serhiy Kuyun

Director of Consulting Group A-95

Previously a barge would be loaded to 100%. Now they are loaded only to 20–30% because of draft restrictions.

For example, if small vessels could previously carry 4 thousand tons of fuel on the Danube, now that figure falls to 1–2 thousand tons. So delivering the same fuel volume requires more trips and higher costs.

The Danube’s shallowing has significantly limited Ukraine’s alternative logistics options amid the blockade of Greater Odesa ports. Low barge loadings make transport costlier and reduce volumes. For key sectors of Ukraine’s economy, the loss of the maritime corridor is a critical problem.