Catastrophe on the Danube: What the river’s critical shallowing means for Ukraine’s economy

Because Russia has blockaded the Black Sea ports of Odesa region, navigation on the Danube has once again gone from a reserve route to one of the key channels for supporting the Ukrainian economy. It is precisely thanks to Danube ports and other logistics routes that they are now trying to at least partially compensate for the loss of sea exports.

However, it seems nature itself is working against Ukraine here, because this year the Danube’s water level is at critically low marks. This negatively affects navigation and also poses a challenge to the energy sector of neighboring countries.

24 The Channel investigated what the Danube’s shallowing means for Ukraine’s strategic economic sectors and whether river logistics can save exports at a critical moment.

Consequences of the Danube’s shallowing for Ukrainian exports

The second largest river in Europe has catastrophically shallow waters. The water level has fallen to points not seen on the Danube for decades. In Romania, at the beginning of August they recorded an approach to the historical minimum 1985 year, while in Serbia they reported locally reaching the lowest level since 1909 year.

The Danube is an important transport artery of Europe, because its basin unites 19 countries. For Ukraine, the river’s importance is amplified by the fact that, under Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea ports, it is one of the few alternatives for export logistics. Through Ukraine’s Danube ports agricultural and metallurgical products are exported abroad, and fuel is imported.

As Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB) analyst Maksym Hopka told 24 Channel, the Danube ports are an important reserve route that allows avoiding a complete halt to agricultural exports. However, they cannot become a full substitute for Greater Odesa.

Maksym Hopka

Analyst at the Ukrainian Club of Agrarian Business

Their main advantage is the ability to deliver products by barge to Constanța or to load them onto small sea vessels. The Danube can mitigate the effects of the blockade but will not replace the deep-water Black Sea ports.

Danube ports played a significant role in the early years of the full-scale war, when it was necessary to urgently scale up logistics on this route under Russia’s Black Sea blockade. As of 2022 year, about 16,5 million tons of cargo were transshipped via Reni, Izmail, and Ust-Dunaisk (for comparison: in 2021 – 5,5 million tons). In 2023 year, the Danube ports’ throughput reached a record 29 million tons.

Fuel

Average prices at Amic Energy gas stations as of

Maksym Hopka notes that in August 2023 year about 64,5% of all alternative exports passed through Ukraine’s Danube ports, namely 2,4 million tons of agricultural products. In total, without Greater Odesa they then reached a record 3,7 million tons in a month.

Ukraine’s Danube ports / 24 Channel

In subsequent years, volumes transshipped through the Danube ports declined and by the end of 2025 had fallen to about 9 million tons, since more efficient and cheaper maritime logistics became available.

In the first half of 2026 year, all alternative routes (Danube, rail, road) provided export of 2,7 million tons of agricultural products, while the ports of Greater Odesa handled 24,6 million tons.

Thus, the throughput capacity of Danube ports has long not been used to full extent, and in conditions of low water it becomes physically impossible to scale it up quickly. UCAB’s analyst explains that the key issue here is the draft restrictions on vessels throughout the lower Danube.

At the end of July, the Danube’s flow at the river’s entry into Romania was 64–65% below the average July level: 1 650–1 700 cubic meters per second versus 4 700–4 750 cubic meters per second. Actual depths at some critical sections decreased to 1,5–1,7 meters.

Because of this, barges lose approximately 30–60% of their normal cargo capacity. The same volume of grain must be distributed among a greater number of vessels and voyages, fleet turnaround time increases, and queues form,

– notes Maksym Hopka.

Another reaction to logistics complications has been higher costs. In July, alternative routes required about 40 dollars per ton in additional expenses compared to normal export via deep-water Black Sea ports. At the beginning of August, according to the analyst’s estimate, that figure should be updated to 45–50 dollars per ton.

As Maksym Hopka explains, the price increase is caused by several factors at once:

increased demand for barges after ships stopped calling at Greater Odesa;

wartime risks;

underloading of the fleet due to low water.

“For crops with relatively low prices—primarily corn and feed wheat—alternative logistics can absorb a significant portion or even all of the producer’s margin,” the analyst summarizes.

As a result, agribusiness, especially small producers, came under significant pressure: reduced shipments led to a drop in domestic prices for agricultural products, while export logistics became more expensive. All this happens in the midst of the harvest campaign against the backdrop of fairly large carryover stocks from last year that need to be stored somewhere. On the horizon is the autumn sowing, for which funds are needed to purchase inputs.

To mitigate the consequences of the blocking of sea exports, the government announced a number of measures to support farmers. The first will be changes to the “Affordable Loans 5 – 7 – 9%” program.

As Prime Minister of Ukraine Serhiy Koretskyi said on 6 August, agribusiness will be given the opportunity to obtain preferential loans to replenish working capital. It is expected that this will help prepare for fieldwork, maintain production, and ensure stable export of products.

The state will compensate the difference in interest rates. The total amount of lending available under the preferential loan program is up to 80 billion hryvnias.

However, even under optimistic scenarios the authorities acknowledge that Danube, rail, and road routes can provide at most 45–50% of annual agricultural exports.

Ukraine’s metallurgy is also facing significant problems due to the blockade of Black Sea ports. According to GMK Center, the crisis of 2026 year for the industry is more destructive than in 2022 year. There are no alternatives to deep-water ports, because the overall situation is much less favorable than at the start of the full-scale war.

The maritime corridor remains the main logistics channel for exports of Ukraine’s metallurgical and mining sectors. In the first half of 2026 year it accounted for 50% of steel exports, 95% of pig iron exports, and 50% of iron ore exports.

As the president of the association of enterprises Ukrmetalurhprom, Oleksandr Kalenkov, told EP, access to the sea is a key factor in the metallurgical industry’s survival, and the current export problem is larger than in 2022–2023 years, when product prices were higher.

In the first year of the full-scale war some cargoes were redirected to Danube ports, but now the river has shallowed, so that route cannot help the industry. Moreover, since then iron ore prices have fallen from 120 dollars per ton to less than 98 dollars.

Because of export disruptions, the first production stoppages have already begun:

the Ferrexpo group temporarily stopped production at the Poltava Mining and Processing Plant;

the same happened at the Southern Mining and Processing Plant owned by the Metinvest group.

According to the president of Ukrmetalurhprom, if the export situation does not improve within a few weeks, enterprises will shut down or go idle.

According to the forecast of GMK Center’s chief analyst Andriy Tarasenko, due to the closure of the maritime corridor, direct losses for Ukrainian metallurgy will amount to 150–200 million dollars per month.

How does the Danube’s low water affect the energy sector?

The Danube is no less significant for energy security. In addition to hydrogeneration, its waters provide cooling for the reactors of nuclear power plants in Hungary and Romania. The fall in water level forced countries to partially shut down power units at their nuclear plants. This led to a capacity deficit and the need to increase electricity imports.

In Hungary, at the only Paks nuclear power plant, which covers almost half the country’s needs, only one of four reactors is operating. Electricity production had to be reduced due to the Danube’s critical drop in water level. As Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar stated, the plant was “a few millimeters” away from a complete shutdown.

In recent days the shallowing situation has somewhat improved and the water level rose by 9 centimeters compared to the minimum recorded on Sunday. However, the need to reduce consumption has not disappeared, so large industrial consumers and state institutions are still urged to continue using less electricity.

The Danube in Hungary. Photo – Kudettné Horvát Elizabethnek from social networks

The situation in Romania is similar: the two reactors of its only nuclear power plant, Cernavodă, are cooled by Danube water. The plant accounts for one fifth of the country’s electricity production.

At the end of July one reactor had to be shut down, and in August emergency measures were taken to support the operating unit. In particular, they decided to redirect larger volumes of water to the nuclear plant by blasting rock in the Danube to change the flow direction.

The next step was the controlled sinking of four barges filled with stones to redirect the flow and raise the water level in the area of the nuclear power plant. According to calculations, this should support the plant’s operation while awaiting a rise in the river’s water level after rains.

The Romanian power system’s situation is now difficult, because the shutdown of a reactor has created a deficit. To cover it, they are importing electricity from Ukraine, Nuclearelectrica reported on 3 August.

As energy expert Volodymyr Omelchenko explained to 24 Channel, export is possible thanks to a large number of solar power plants that during the day allow production of more electricity than the country needs domestically. To avoid limiting generation from solar and other renewables, their surplus is sold abroad.

Volodymyr Omelchenko

Director of Energy Programs at the Razumkov Center

We export electricity to Romania and Hungary today, although not in very large volumes. But we export during the day, when we have a lot of sun and relatively low consumption. In the evening, when consumption rises, solar plants no longer work so effectively, so it is profitable for us to import electricity. So there is such a commercial, market option.

According to ExPro, in July Ukraine increased electricity exports by 48%—to 232,5 thousand megawatt-hours. At the same time, electricity imports fell by 40%—to 175 thousand megawatt-hours.

So for the first time in a long while Ukraine sold more electricity abroad than it bought. 48% of supplies went to Hungary. Exports were also made to Romania, Slovakia, Moldova, and Poland.

At the same time, Ukraine’s need to import electricity has not disappeared, although it has decreased. Expert Volodymyr Omelchenko notes that the situation with nuclear unit shutdowns and capacity deficits in neighboring countries also affects Ukraine. Since reduced production leads to higher market prices, imports cost us more.

What about logistics for fuel imports to Ukraine?

Fuel logistics are also affected by the Danube’s shallowing. Low water levels create restrictions for transporting petroleum products by barge at a time when Black Sea ports cannot be used.

Fuel market expert Serhiy Kuyun told 24 Channel that because of the low water level barges cannot take the full volume of fuel. This exacerbates an already tense supply situation.

Serhiy Kuyun

Director of Consulting Group A-95

Previously a barge would be loaded to 100%. Now they load only 20–30% because of the draft.

For example, if small vessels could previously transport 4 thousand tons of fuel via the Danube, that figure now falls to 1–2 thousand tons. So to deliver the same fuel volume, more voyages and higher costs are needed.

The Danube’s shallowing has significantly limited Ukraine’s alternative logistics options under the blockade of Greater Odesa ports. Low barge payloads make transport more expensive and reduce volumes. For key sectors of the Ukrainian economy, the loss of the maritime corridor is a critical problem.