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Automatically translated version. May contain inaccuracies compared to the original.
the Kremlin is preparing a new wave of mobilization — this time the numbers sound like a challenge to common sense. In Russia they speak of a plan to recruit 800 thousand new conscripts by the end of the year, although even Russian experts themselves admit that swallowing such a mass of people is impossible. As analyst Vadim Denisenko writes in his Facebook blog, reality may boil down to 300−500 thousand, but even this is enough to sharply increase pressure on society, expand the practice of forced contracts, and, at the same time, escalate provocations against neighboring countries.
“Russian authorities announced mobilization plans”
Last week a meeting took place in the Kremlin at which the mobilization plan through the end of the year was first announced. The army is asking for 800 thousand.
1. I’ll say right away, this number seems unrealistic to me. On the one hand, the army simply physically will not be able to “swallow” such a mass of people (to accommodate them, given our capabilities for deep-strike operations, and to train them, due to the lack of enough suitable centers). But they, it seems, are going by the principle “demand more, you’ll get at least something.” And this something will turn into a split from 300 to 500 thousand new conscripts. 2. For now, as I understand it, the basic scenario is mobilization for money. That is, contract payments are not canceled so as not to undermine the social contract of recent years, which amounts to exchanging life for decent sums of money. And such a scenario sharply reduces the likelihood of local uprisings.
3. It seems the basic scenario is that Russia will not officially declare mobilization for now. It will simply repeatedly increase monthly plans and mobilization will proceed by all available methods. In other words, the plan for arrests for the police rises sharply, who will grab everyone off the street and then force them to sign a contract; the area of besieging, previously worked out mainly in the Penza region, will expand sharply and simultaneously the plan for recruitment in manufacturing will grow. I repeat, achieving the planned results is impossible, but by the end of the year the Russian army will have grown by no less than 300−500 thousand.
4. Alongside this, provocations toward the Baltic states and Poland are expected to rise. 5. Overall, it seems the Russian plan is fairly simple: keep the maritime blockade of Ukraine as long as possible, despite the very difficult situation for Russia itself. Try to conduct certain hybrid acts in Poland to attempt to block the Poland-Ukraine land border. At the same time, try to maximize creeping influence by small groups on all directions. Try to demoralize the population with strikes on major cities and civilian infrastructure, which we are already seeing. But all this is theory. Life will make its itself substantial adjustments. As this has happened more than once, wrote Denisenko.
Earlier, FAKTY reported that in Russia there is a demand on enterprises to supply soldiers for the war.
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